By Jim Dower: 29-year-old challenger Matthew Macklin (29-2, 19 KO’s) will be fighting for a world title for the first time this Saturday night against WBA Super World middleweight champion Felix Sturm (35-2-1, 15 KO’s) at the Lanxess-Arena, Cologne, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany. Macklin has been a pro for 10 years and it’s nice to see him get a shot after all these years, but he’s going to have a tough time trying to get a win fighting Sturm in Germany.

Sturm rarely loses when fighting at home and with his laser-like jab, Macklin may find himself out-gunned in this fight. Macklin probably has the better power of the two, but it won’t help him much if he can’t get past Sturm’s jab to land his shots. That’s the big problem for Macklin. Sturm is very consistent with his jab and it’s so good that he’s able to dominate with this weapon alone.

To be sure, Sturm can be beaten. We saw Spaniard Javier Castillejo get inside on Sturm in a 10th round TKO win for Castillejo in 2006. However, Macklin isn’t a good inside fighter like Castillejo and does his best work at range. Besides that, Sturm has improved since his loss to Castillejo and doesn’t make the mistake of trying to fight guys on the inside. Instead, Sturm tends to grab his opponents when they get in close the same way that IBF/WBO heavyweight champion Wladimir Klitschko typically does. Sturm is also very good at rolling away from fighters that try to walk him down.

Macklin is catching Sturm at a good point in his career because Sturm just finished beating Ronald Hearns by a 7th round TKO in a fight where Sturm took a great deal of punishment. Macklin could take advantage of a depleted Sturm and maybe squeak out a win if he’s able to put enough pressure on Sturm to impress the judges. The key is to put a lot of pressure on Sturm and hurt him on the inside. If Macklin stays on the outside he’ll be torn apart by Sturms’ jabs.