By Matt Stein: Middleweight contender Giovanni Lorenzo (29-2, 21 KO’s) is predicting that he’ll break WBA middleweight champion Felix Sturm’s (33-2-1, 14 KO’s) tonight in their title fight at the Lanxess-Arena, Cologne, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany. Lorenzo, 29, is the underdog in this fight and few people think he has a chance of winning the fight due to Sturm’s superior boxing skills. However, Lorenzo, if nothing else, can punch and is probably the biggest puncher that Sturm has ever faced in his career.
If Lorenzo can jump on Sturm immediately and drill him with his big shots, Lorenzo could have a decent chance of knocking Sturm out. But the longer the fight goes, the more likely it will be that Sturm will win the fight by decision. Lorenzo tends to fade late in his fights and loses a lot of his big power.
In an article at Fightfranchise.com, Lorenzo talks about breaking Sturm’s nose, saying “The worst mistake they have made is to treat me as an opponent. They are going to be surprised. Very surprised. I’ll break Sturm’s big nose. It’s a big target.” The fact is that Sturm and his people have picked Lorenzo because they think it’s a winnable fight. If Sturm wanted to take on a fighter that would really give him a lot of problems, he would choose someone like Gennady Golovkin, Paul Williams or Hassan N’Dam N’Jikam, but those guys would have a really good chance of beating Sturm. As such, Lorenzo has been picked out of the pack to get the chance against Sturm. Lorenzo was beaten by Sebastian Sylvester in 12 round decision last year. Sturm just happens to have easily beaten Sylvester by a one-sided 12 round decision in 2008. That probably was a factor in making Sturm decide on fighting Lorenzo rather than someone that would be considered more dangerous.
Sturm looked poor in his last fight over a year ago against Khoren Gevor. Sturm won the fight by a 12 round decision but it was close and Sturm got hit a lot. Sturm has struggled against fighters like Randy Griffin and Javier Castillejo. He seems to have problems against fighters that throw a lot of punches. He’s fine if he can set the pace and just throw jabs all night long, but if his opponents put constant pressure on him and throw a lot of punches, then Sturm looks flustered and has problems. Lorenzo, however, doesn’t typically throw a lot of punches, so Sturm may have picked well in choosing him as an opponent.