By Dan Ambrose: IBF/WBO heavyweight champion Wladimir Klitschko (54-3, 48 KO’s) may be considered by many boxing fans to be the best heavyweight in the division, but I have a feeling that he’s going to get knocked out on Saturday night against Nigerian Samuel Peter (34-3, 27 KO’s).

Wladimir, 34, has never had the best chin in the business and has had problems when facing guys that can punch a little. In this case, he’s facing someone that he has some history with, as Wladimir was knocked down three times in beating Peter by a 12 round decision in 2005. For boxing fans that don’t have much recollection of that fight, it was a nail biter up until the bell sounded to end the fight.

Wladimir was in constant danger of being knocked out by Peter and it was fortunate that the Ukrainian was able to escape with a win. In this case, Peter has improved in the past five years and is in much better shape than was back then.

And like some people have pointed out, Peter is much better at preventing fighters from holding onto him. The clinching was a major factor in Wladimir’s victory over Peter last time out. I think it’s fair to say that if Wladimir hadn’t initiated 10+ clinches per round in that fight, he would have likely been knocked out. That’s a lot of clinching. Wladimir also used a lot of movement to keep Peter from catching up to him.

I expect Wladimir to move a lot on Saturday night. However, he won’t be able to move constantly for 12 rounds without needing to stand and fight. He’s going to get tired and try to clinch or fight with Peter. Clinching won’t work now because Peter is now able to keep fighters from grabbing him by hitting them while being held.

Wladimir will still likely try to hold on but he’ll abandon that early when he finds out that Peter is making him pay each time he does get grabbed. Wladimir hasn’t been really hit hard for a long time, because other than Lamon Brewster, who was coming off of a year layoff due to eye surgery, Wladimir hasn’t faced anyone with any kind of power.

Hasim Rahman looked woefully out of shape when Wladimir fought him in 2008. This is going to be the first big puncher that Wladimir has faced since he last fought Peter. Since Wladimir is now five years older, and more stationary, I suspect he’s not going to be able to move enough to keep Peter off of him. Wladimir really has once choice in this fight and that’s to fight Peter or end up getting knocked out.

If Wladimir runs a lot, he’ll tire out and get knocked out. At least if he stands and trades, he has a chance of getting Peter before he gets taken out. Wladimir is just as dangerous as Peter, but the problem is Wladimir will likely waste his power by choosing to run around the ring trying to survive. This will put the ball Peter’s court and I suspect he’ll knock Wladimir out in six rounds.