By Eric Baldwin: Floyd Mayweather Jr. is already the favorite to beat Manny Pacquiao in their potential rematch in 2017. With Mayweather showing up to see Pacquiao fight last Saturday night in his match against Jessie Vargas, the odds-makers can smell a fight brewing between the two superstars. Bavoda has Mayweather the favorite by the line -350 to +250 for Pacquiao.
It’s not all that surprising that Mayweather is the favorite, because Pacquiao did not look that good against Vargas. Pacquiao appeared just as relucatant to attack Vargas as he did in his fight against Mayweather last year. Mayweather won that fight by a 12 round decision, mostly because of Pacquiao not attacking him as much as he needed to for him to have a chance of winning the fight.
It appeared to some boxing fans that Pacquiao is still mentally shattered by his knockout loss to Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012. In that fight, Pacquiao charged Marquez in the last seconds of the 6th round, and was knocked unconscious by him. That was the only time in Pacquiao’s career in which he was knocked out while running forward at one of his opponents.
Instead of Pacquiao seeing it as a fluke thing, he seems to be gun-shy in attacking his opponents the way he used to. The thing is, Pacquiao will never beat Mayweather or the good contenders with the way he’s fighting right now. He’s too passive, and he doesn’t throw enough punches.
The only way Mayweather vs. Pacquiao II takes place is if it happens next, because Pacquiao’s promoter Bob Arum seems VERY interested in matching him against Terence Crawford next. Pacquiao probably loses that fight. If Pacquiao gets beaten, then there’s no point in discussing further a fight between Mayweather and Pacquiao, because it won’t happen. The interest from boxing fans in that fight will be gone entirely and it won’t come back.
Mayweather isn’t going to fight Crawford, because he’s not going to be transformed into a star after beating Pacquiao. Crawford will be the same fighter he was before. Arum can stick Crawford on pay-per-view with him as the headliner, but the fans are probably not going to purchase his fights, because he doesn’t appear to have the style that would attract fans. Arum would be better off trying to turn his fighter WBO featherweight champion Oscar Valdez into a star, because he seems to have the makings of becoming a star if he can move up to at least the lightweight division.
Hopefully for boxing fans, Arum won’t rush into negotiating a fight between Pacquiao and Crawford right away without exhausting all efforts to make the rematch against Mayweather. A rematch between Pacquiao and Mayweather would be huge news for the fans. A fight between Pacquiao and Crawford would be the same as Pacquiao fighting Jessie Vargas again. There’s no upside to a fight like that taking place. Arum would be shooting himself in the foot if he makes that fight. Pacquiao will lose, and he’ll probably retire. Crawford will still be the same non-PPV attraction as he is now. It’s all predictable. You have to wonder whether Arum can see these things for himself ahead of time. He shouldn’t have matched Pacquiao against Tim Bradley for a third fight, and he shouldn’t have matched him against Vargas. There were bigger fights in the boxing world for Pacquiao than facing Arum’s two fighters Vargas and Bradley.
“Like everyone else, I’m guessing there will be a rematch. He did come to the fight,” Arum said to ESPN.com. “I give it 75 percent. Do I know it’s gonna happen? No. Do I know if Floyd wants the fight? No. I know nothing more than the public knows at this point and what I observed. It doesn’t mean the rematch will happen, though, but it means the tension is gone. The bad words are not there. If the fight does happen it will be easier to make.”
Well, hopefully, Arum holds off in matching Pacquiao against one of his own Top Rank fighters long enough to try and put a rematch together between Pacquiao and Mayweather. That’s the fight the fans want to see. There’s no demand for a fight between Pacquiao and Crawford or Pacquiao and Lomachenko.