Kovalev vs. Ward: Who Has the Advantage?

By Boxing News - 09/04/2016 - Comments

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By Earl E: On November 19, we boxing fanatics are treated to a special fight between IBF/WBA/WBC light heavyweight champion Sergey Kovalev (30-0-1, 26 Kos) and Andre Ward (30-0, 15 Kos) for their HBO pay-per-view from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Us boxing fanatics watch all the matches. We aren’t your casual boxing fans that only watch boxing when it’s PPV hype or it’s the cool thing to do on a Saturday night. We are fanatics, and I say that word with the utmost respect. We love everything about the sweet science. There is something about boxing that gets us excited. As you sit there reading my article, I know you understand that excitement we feel when any boxing subject comes up. Go ahead and nod in agreement with me.

Jim Lampley, in his HBO segment The Fight Game said it best, “Everyone knows when they’re in a fight.” He made this statement to explain why boxing universally reaches a wide audience, regardless of people’s abilities to understand sports. My wife may not know the pros and cons of using a 4-3 defense or zone blitzing, but she sure understood that Danny Garcia and Lucas Matthysse; Tim Bradley and Ruslan Provodnikov; Adrian Broner vs. Marcos Maidana, in their respective matches were in a fight.

Unlike the usual lob sided fights, such as anything Adonis Stevenson or Deontay Wilder are involved in. We fanatics including my wife (which in this article represents the common casual boxing fan) via Andre Ward and Sergey Kovalev will get a good entertaining fight. When I analyze this fight, and start to think one has the edge over the other, I start to think about something else that neutralizes my first thought, and so the cycle continues. Thus, resulting in me throwing my arms in the air without any definite answer in who I believe will win the fight.

Then I remembered something Floyd Mayweather said in one of those Showtime All Access episodes leading up to one of his fights. He said the best boxer doesn’t have to the be strongest or fastest, but has to possess a solid chin, and then he pointed at his head to indicate intelligence (in this article we will call it Boxing IQ). Let’s examine Mr. Mayweather’s advice, because after all he is an all-time great, and you’re a fool to think otherwise. However, for conversation’s sake let’s apply this logic towards the Ward vs Kovalev fight. Here we go, as follows:

Chin– I’ve never seen any fight the boxers were engaged in to think their chins are questionable. So, here I don’t see any issues for both.

Boxing IQ– Kovalev impressed me when he fought Bernard Hopkins. He strategically stayed as a boxer/puncher throughout the fight even though he knocked down Hopkins. He didn’t get tunnel vision by trying to knock out Hopkins knowing he was hurt. If he turned in to the boxer/brawler method, he may have lost rounds as Hopkins would have out boxed him. Instead, he followed his team’s game plan and stayed the course as a boxer/puncher. This tells me that Kovalev has Boxing IQ. Do I really need to give an analysis if Ward has boxing IQ? If a university had a PhD emphasis in Boxing, then Ward would be the first professor.

Here I go again, back to square one and throwing my hands up in the air. There has to be something else that I can use to help determine who has the slightest advantage in winning. Well, what about stamina and movement?

Stamina– Kovalev is definitely in excellent shape. The doubters who believed he would gas out towards the championship rounds (rounds 10, 11, 12) against Hopkins were clearly mistaken. In his last fight against Isaac Chilemba, he again went the distance. On the other hand, Ward because of promotional issues, only fought 4 times since 2013, unlike Kovalev who has fought 11 times. However, should we doubt that Ward will not be physically prepared for this fight? I have no doubt in my mind that Ward will be physically ready.

Movement-I saved this for last, because movement in boxing is controversial. The boxer/brawler type fans see movement as cowardly while the boxing purist see it as a thing of beauty. Movement can definitely frustrate an opponent. Movement makes the opponent miss punches, movement makes the opponent have to think, movement makes the opponent have to guess, sometimes even questioning himself during the duration of the fight, movement leads to setting up counter punches and clean punches. Movement like the jab, sets everything in place. Movement tests the opponent’s stamina, because the opponent now has to exert more endurance to handle the movement. Movement reduces the boxing IQ, because of frustration. It makes the opponent constantly have to think to the point where the mind is clouded in guesses and questions. Lastly, movement tests the chin, since movement sets up cleaner punches and counter punches. On November 19, there is one boxer with better movement. It may not be much better, but it is still slightly better, and this is Mr. Ward. This slightest advantage in movement, will be the reason Mr. Ward stays undefeated.

Regardless of the outcome, thank you Mr. Ward and Mr. Kovalev for treating us boxing fanatics to a fight we know will be memorable.