By Byron Wallin: Kelly Pavlik (37-2, 32 KO’s) has experiences a steep and tragic fall from grace in the boxing world over the past few years. People now are all too quick to write him off as a drunk and a bum. However, it was not so long ago that he dethroned Jermaine Taylor (who was undefeated at the time with two victories over the great Bernard Hopkins) to become the unified middleweight champion of the World.

In Pavlik’s first career loss to Bernard Hopkins it could be argued he was simply outclassed by the veteran tactician. Similarly, Sergio Martinez in the period since taking Pavlik’s titles has gone on to prove himself, as a genuine pound for pound contender. However, when I watch these fights back it seems apparent that Pavlik was not fighting with the same intensity or desire he once had. The boxing world has since discovered that Pavlik has been battling a long time against a demon outside the ring which consumes many fighters and human beings in general – alcohol. I’m not for one moment saying that Pavlik would have won those fights but for his drinking problem, but surely it’s a possibility.

Despite Pavlik’s fall from grace, and the length of time he has spent out of the ring, it seems that some fire may still burn inside the man. He has recently voiced his opinion that he believes he would defeat Julio Cesar Chavez Junior, after attending his recent decision victory over Marco Antonio Rubio. A man who Pavlik himself dominated and knocked out in the not so distant past. After reflecting on Pavlik’s claim, I not only agree, but am certain, that if he gets in shape, and discovers his old hunger, Julio would stand no chance.

Pavlik is tall, with one of the best one two straight combinations in the division. He also has an incredible chin, and when in shape can really let the punches go with huge power. Chavez on the other hand, is not a Sergio Martinez type elusive counter puncher. He is a big cumbersome middleweight, with poor footwork and defense, who is there to be hit. Chavez also lacks power at the elite level, and certainly has nothing in his artillery that could remotely hurt Kelly Pavlik. There just appears to be no means by which Chavez can win this fight, and sadly for that reason his promoter Bob Arum will never allow what would be an exciting and easily sell-able comeback/redemption fight to be made. Which is once again a shame for the fans of boxing, as I’m sure it is a fight that most of them would be excited to see, and one in which I would predict a Pavlik stoppage win inside ten rounds.