By Francisco Hernandez: Freddie Roach recently made comments warning Nonito Donaire about Montiel, not to take the fight so lightly because Montiel knows how to win. Roach gave Nonito a 50/50 chance of winning the fight. Freddie Roach’s warning probably didn’t go far enough; Donaire should be warned that he is at high risk of getting knocked out by the merciless finisher Montiel. This is the heavy reason why Donaire will more likely lose the fight by knockout: Weight problems are catching up with Donaire. Donaire himself has admitted that after the fight with Montiel, he plans to move up to a higher division.

Donaire has been milking the advantage of ballooning up after weigh-ins to beat much smaller ham and egg palookas, but that is getting harder to do, he is being forced by nature to move up to higher weight divisions, it will be hard for him to make even the super bantamweight division, but if he moves to the featherweight division he has zero chances against the monsters there, Juan Manual Lopez, and Yuriorkis Gamboa. Donaire can try to hide in the super bantamweight division and fight obscure easy opponents, but no one in the United States will want to watch those fights. Donaire will have to move to Japan where he will have a better market for those types of fights and will be forgotten in America like another Jorge Linares.

If you mix Donaire’s weight problems with the fact that Fernando Montiel is at the peak of his boxing career then you have a recipe for Donaire to get knocked out. Donaire is going to have to starve and dehydrate himself to make the weight for the fight with Montiel. Nonito will balloon-up after the weigh-in, but he is no longer 20 years old, his body will not be able to rehydrate well and adjust to the big weight gain after he balloons up. Donaire will enter the fight emaciated, pale, on tooth pick legs, his jaw will be an easy victim for a bone shattering Montiel hook. If Donaire decides to run, it will do him no good, Montiel knows how to cut off the ring, Montiel eventually will bring down the wobbly legged Donaire.

Although this writer agrees that Nonito Donaire is the best skilled Filipino boxer of today, it is also true that Donaire’s status is based mostly on his ability to manipulate his weight in order to fight smaller fighters lacking any boxing skills. The only true accomplishment of Donaire is his win over Vic Darchinyan, other than that his exploits are empty vain talk by media whores who sell themselves out for money to promote certain fighters like Khan, Pacquiao. Donaire until now has wasted his career in hiding from big fights; time is catching up with him and he has finally decided to take a risk in fighting Fernando Montiel. Win or lose the prospects are not good for Donaire, if he moves up to super bantamweight he will still have problems making weight and will have to fight in Japan, the only ones interested in that weight class are the Japanese, and if he moves up to his natural weight, the featherweight division, he has null chances against the fighters there. To this writer it seems that after the Montiel fight, Nonito Donaire’s career in boxing is pretty much over. Of course he can continue fighting palookas, but in the sense of doing anything great in boxing after the Montiel fight, Donaire is done.