By Jim Dower: If Shane Mosley (45-5, 38 KOs) was in need of a big payday, he probably could have found a much easier way of doing it than facing World Boxing Association welterweight champion Antonio Margarito (37-5, 27 KOs), whom he’ll be facing in January, with the winner rumored to be fighting Miguel Cotto in the Summer. Mosley, 27, has already been beaten by Cotto in November 2007, and his chances of beating Margarito, a fighter that is coming off of an 11th-round TKO of Cotto in July.

However, for Mosley to go from Ricardo Mayorga into a fight with Margarito seems almost suicidal on his part. Mosley looked terrible against Mayorga, unable to pull the trigger for most of the bout, getting hit constantly and tiring out in the latter part of the fight. If not for the stoppage, I had Mayorga winning the fight handily. Given that Mayorga was considered by many boxing fans to be a shot fighter going into his fight with Mosley, it wasn’t exactly confidence instilling to see Mosley struggle for the entire bout. Though I’d like to give Mosley a chance at beating Margarito due to his once having excellent boxing skills, which enabled him to win titles as a lightweight, welterweight and light middleweight, I think Mosley’s physical tools have been eroding for many years now.

He doesn’t move well anymore, his work rate has slipped off dramatically, and he can’t move from side to side well like he once did. He still has good accuracy with his punches, but without the work rate to go with it, he’s at a severe handicap against the best welterweight and light middleweights in boxing. However, he labors to throw from 50 punches per round and it’ll be like he’s facing a firing squad when he meets up with Margarito, who averages well over 100 punches thrown in every round. Accuracy matters little when you’re getting 100 shots thrown your way in every round.

Mosley is use to fighting bigger guys like Margarito, so there’s a small chance that Mosley may win, but I tend to doubt it. I see Mosley getting taken apart, badly beaten, his face ripped to shreds and him ultimately being stopped in the 5th or 6th rounds. If he’s lucky, very lucky, he may make it the full 12 rounds, but in doing so he’ll take a terrible beating and, of course, still lose. I just hope that Mosley isn’t hurt too badly, because he seems like a nice enough guy.

His judgment is questionable, but he’s a nice guy. Even if Mosley was in his prime, I think he’d get destroyed by Margarito, because he wouldn’t have the power to hurt Margarito and even in his youth, Mosley was never a fighter that averaged anywhere close to 100 punches thrown per round. At 5’9″, Mosley would have been too small to ever beat Margarito, no matter what stage in his career. Mosley may have enough power to get Margarito’s attention with a few isolated shots, but not enough to cause him to back off.

If Cotto couldn’t do it, then Mosley surely won’t. Margarito will walk through any of Mosley’s single shots, and quickly obliterate him with punches. At 37, Mosley can no longer throw combinations period, and is more of a pot shot fighter similar to Roy Jones Jr. Unfortunately, Mosley has only beaten one fighter that I could consider good – Luis Collazo -in the past five years, and even the last good win that he got, a controversial 12-round decision over Oscar De La Hoya, appeared to be a gift decision.

With no real competition to ready himself for a fighter like Margarito, Mosley will likely be facing a career ending beat down by Margarito. Knowing Mosley, he won’t retire and will continue on like a lot of old fighters that have lost their skills, but he’ll more of a circus attraction than a legitimate contender in the welterweight and light middleweight divisions as far as I’m concerned.

Hopefully, Mosley doesn’t take too much of a beating from Margarito. I’m sure Mosley will have several plans to use against him, probably starting with a lot of running around the ring, combined with his usual pot shots. When that doesn’t work, look for him to start clinching Margarito often, hitting him and then grabbing him immediately. It’s a style older fighters like Bernard Hopkins have used effectively to beat younger, faster and stronger opponents.

However, I doubt this will work against Margarito, because he’ll pound Mosley silly with a free hand in every clinch and make him not what to clinch with him. Cotto tried clinching Margarito on a couple of occasions in their bout, and was hit with jackhammer shots over and over at close range, making him not want to clinch with him too often. That leaves only one other option for Mosley to fall back on, and that’s trying to slug it out with Margarito. I see this as what Mosley will fall back on and will quickly go down in a storm of punches. Hopefully, Mosley retires after his beating rather than embarrass himself against other top fighters like Cotto or Vernon Forrest.