By Barry Holbrook: Leo Santa Cruz rates Danny Garcia high and believes he has close to a 50-50 chance of beating IBF/WBC welterweight champion Errol Spence Jr in their fight on November 21. The combination of Spence’s recent car crash and the fact that he’s facing the biggest puncher in the 147-lb division has Leo doubting him.
Santa Cruz likes the punching power of Garcia (36-2, 21 KOs), and feels he’s a a stronger puncher than Spence’s last opponent Shawn Porter, who came close to beating him.
What Leo (37-1, 19 KOs) is the unknown factor about Spence (26-0, 21 KOs) is whether he’s physically recovered from his car crash from last October. The boxing world as a whole is wondering whether Spence will be the same fighter that he was in the past because it was that bad of an accident.
Will Spence be the same?
Spence, 30, is lucky to be alive, and for him to be the same fighter that once was, it’s hard to believe that he will be. Certainly, Spence’s Ferrari will never be the same. It was smashed beyond recognition from the accident. When you look at his car, it makes you question whether Spence will be even half the fighter that was before the accident.
“It’s another great fight. Danny Garcia hits hard, but he starts slow and then brings it up in the later rounds,” said Santa Cruz to Fighthype.
“He throws punches, and he has the power. I think he’s stronger than Shawn Porter, but Shawn Porter puts more pressure.”
If Danny Garcia catches Spence with one of his left hooks, he’s going to be in big trouble on November 21. Danny punches like a mule kicks, and he’s dangerous for anyone, let alone someone that is coming off of a terrible car crash. It’s safe to assume that if Garcia lands cleanly with vertically with any punch in this fight, Spence is going to hit the deck, and he may not get up.
It doesn’t make sense that Spence has chosen to fight a guy with Danny’s punching power in his first fight after his car crash. That’s not a sound decision on Errol or his team’s part. It’s not a well thought out decision on Spence’s position to be taking on Garcia in his first fight back from his car crash, but it tells you that they’re overconfident and drunk on success.
Errol should be taking baby steps
A loss for Spence to Garcia will put things in perspective for Errol and his team, as they’ll know what they should have done. Once Spence loses, then they’ll understand that they’ve got to start him from the beginning and try and slowly work him back to where he was before the accident. In other words, Spence needs to take baby steps to build back to the level he was at before he crashed his Ferrari last October in Dallas, Texas.
“The thing is, if Danny Garcia catches him [Spence], he can hurt him. Those fights are so close,” Santa Cruz continued.
It’s hard to decide which way. It’s like 50-50. Shawn Porter and Danny Garcia was a pretty even fight. If they fight ten times, it’s always going to be a close fight.”
Spence can punch too, and he could hurt Danny if he connects with one of his big shots. But despite Spence having great power, Garcia has the chin to withstand almost anything that he can throw.
For Spence to have the possibility of knocking out Danny ‘Swift,’ he’ll need to stand in the pocket and unload on him from start to finish. Given that Spence didn’t show the courage to stand in the pocket with little Mikey Garcia last year, it stands to reason that he won’t dare try and punch with Danny.
Perhaps before Spence’s car crash, he might have been brave enough to slug with Danny Garcia, but not now. He won’t want to take the chance that he runs into something big and has a flashback to his car crash.
