By Allan Fox: Middleweights Gennady “GGG” Golovkin and Daniel Jacobs will be meeting up in a big fight on HBO PPV in just 8 days from now on March 18. The hype for fight has been tremendous, as the boxing public really wants to see this match-up. The Golovkin-Jacobs fight is viewed as a contest between the best two fighters in the 160 pound division. That’s not a knock on Golden Boy Promotions star Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, but rather than plain truth right now.
Golovkin and Jacobs are viewed as the best. The 26-year-old Canelo is still unproven at the middleweight level.
Jacobs says he’s ready to adapt to whatever game that Golovkin puts in front of him on Saturday night. Jacobs and his trainer Andre Rozier with the help of Virgil Hunter have come up with a fight strategy that he believes will lead him to victory on March 18 against GGG.
The Golovkin vs. Jacobs fight is taking place at Madison Square Garden in New York. HBO pay-per-view will televise it for the boxing public. The PPV buys the fight generates will possibly assist Golovkin for his negotiations for a big mega fight against Canelo Alvarez in September if he gets past Jacobs.
“The first 3 to 4 rounds, I think he’s dangerous,” said Matthew Macklin about Jacobs to IFL TV. “After that, Golovkin takes over.”
When asked if Golovkin knocks Jacobs out, Macklin said, “Yeah, probably.”
Jacobs is dangerous for a lot more than 4 rounds. He’s capable of knocking out his opponents all the way up to the 12th round. He doesn’t lose his power as the fight progresses. The real question about this fight is whether Jacobs can handle taking big shots to the head and body for the full three minutes of every round. Jacobs hasn’t been fighting guys with a lot of power in a while.
Jacobs did have a fight against Peter Quillin in 2015, but he wasn’t hit very much in that fight due to him scoring a quick 1st round knockout. That fight would have been interesting to see how well Jacobs handled the power of Quillin if he’d been able land his shots for a number of rounds. There’s nothing wrong with Jacobs scoring a 1st round knockout of Quillin.
That’s admirable that he was able to do that. However, you can’t ignore the fact that Jacobs’ chin wasn’t tested in that fight due to Quillin being knocked out so fast. If Jacobs cannot score a similar lightning fast knockout of Golovkin on March 18, then we could see him getting hit and possibly a lot. It’s potentially bad news for Jacobs if he has to take Golovkin’s power shots for the entire fight to win a decision or for 6-8 rounds to score a knockout. Not too many fighters make it that far against Golovkin, at least not at this point in his career.
“This is the biggest fight of my career, and taking a proper precaution, and coming out here [Hayward, California] was one of the steps,” said Jacobs about the Golovkin fight. “My mental focus is one of those steps. Doing those things will give me the edge. I want to be victorious, and not only that, I want to look good doing it. I want to give the fans a great show. I study habits, and I’m going to adapt on him,” said Jacobs.
It sounds like Jacobs has a cookie cutter approach to the Golovkin fight. Jacobs has mentally processed the fight into steps that he feels will lead him to victory. He talks like he’s describing a recipe to bake a cake rather than to win a fight. I don’t think Jacobs realizes that all the plans that he and his trainer Rozier and Hunter have come up with may ultimately fail if he can’t stand in the pocket and handle the exchanges with Golovkin.
If Jacobs can’t hold his ground in this fight, then he’ll lose. This isn’t a fighter that Jacobs use a strategy of jabbing, moving and holding to spoil his way to a victory on March 18. Golovkin is going to make Jacobs fight him whether he has intentions of doing so or not. For that reason, Jacobs needs to stick with the positive things that have allowed him to win his last 12 fights. Jacobs has used his punching power to outslug his mostly over-matched opposition he’s faced since 2010.
In response to a question of what flaws he sees in Golovkin’s game, Jacobs said, “His defense. He’s there to be hit, even though he’s a monster to defend against. His defense doesn’t add up. If I can be at my best with my defense and by on my A-game with my offense, then it’s going to be a long night [for Golovkin]. The true champions make adjustments if need be. I know we have a game plan that we’re going to try and implement,” said Jacobs.
Jacobs can be at his best and still get knocked out by Golovkin. There’s no way that Jacobs is going to pitch a shutout against Golovkin. He’s going to get hit a lot in the fight, especially if Golovkin puts a lot of pressure on him like he did his last opponent Kell Brook. With Golovkin, he might start slowly and fight in a cautious manner the way he did against Curtis Stevens and David Lemieux.
Golovkin won’t continue to fight cautiously after a certain point in the fight. If Jacobs starts landing big shots early in the contest, then Golovkin will likely switch from being cautious to that of a slugger. He’ll very likely treat Jacobs like he did Brook, Willie Monroe Jr. and Dominic Wade by crowding him and nailing him with huge shots to the head and body. It’ll be up to Jacobs to show that his punch resistance is better than those fighters. Frankly, I don’t think Jacobs does have a better ability to take punishment.
Jacobs is just as vulnerable as those fighters if not more. That means the only thing that is going to keep Jacobs from losing on March 18 is his offense. His offense has to be his defense in the fight, because he’s not going to be able to gimmick his way to a victory by holding, running or trying to block every shot that Golovkin throws. Likewise, Jacobs won’t be able to duck everything Golovkin throws either. He might duck some of the shots, but enough of them will leak through for him to have major problems.
“If we need to go to a Plan-B or Plan C, we’re going to be ready to do that as well,” said Jacobs.
I’d be surprised if Jacobs will be able to shift into a Plan-B and Plan-C in this fight. If things start going badly right off the bat for Jacobs with Golovkin landing his big punches in the first two rounds, then the fight will almost surely end before the fight reaches round 3. If Jacobs is floundering in the early rounds, it’s pointless to even discuss him switching to an alternative game plan. Brook looked like he wanted to fight Golovkin in the 1st round in their match last September. However, Brook’s Plan-A strategy went to pieces immediately when Golovkin broke his right eye socket with a left hook to the head. Brook’s Plan-B appeared to be him getting on his bike and moving to avoid getting hit.
It worked for Brooks somewhat. He like an automobile that was sputtering and dropping engine parts here and there on the road as it moved along. There was no way that Brook was going to be able to last for anything of time with his Plan-B. It was a fail. There was nothing Brook could do. He never got to the point where he switched to Plan-C.
I think we’re going to see the same thing with the 29-year-old Jacobs against Golovkin. If Jacobs’ Plan-A doesn’t work from the outset, then he’s going to be in serious trouble against Golovkin. There won’t be much time for Jacobs to ditch and move to his Plan-B. If he’s falling apart with his Plan-A, he very likely will either be too hurt to switch to Plan-B or no longer cogent. The fight will have been stopped.
A fight winning strategy for Jacobs
Jacobs should really consider going for broke by putting his cards on the table in round 1 and shooting for a quick knockout of Golovkin. If Jacobs can shock Golovkin with an all-out blitz like he did against Peter Quillin, he could get him out of there before he’s had a chance to get warmed up properly. The last thing that Golovkin and his trainer Abel Sanchez think that Jacobs will do is come out fast in round 1 looking for a Quillin-like knockout. They likely suspect that Jacobs will be timid and look to out-box Golovkin or spoil for 12 rounds to survive until the end. The benefits of Jacobs starting fast are there to be seen. Golovkin is probably not going to be warmed up fully, so he won’t be ready for a flurry of sustained punches from Jacobs. If you look at Golovkin’s fight against Kell Brook, he had major problems in rounds 2, 3 and 4 when he was being backed up by sustained combinations from the British fighter. Brook had Golovkin looking shaken up in the 2nd round when he hit him with a big uppercut to the head. Brook then followed the shot up with several more big punches that landed cleanly to the head of Golovkin. For a brief moment there, it looked like Brook was on the verge of knocking Golovkin out. Where Brook made a crucial mistake is by not throwing everything that he had until either Golovkin was knocked out or he was gassed out. It would have given Brook his best shot at winning the fight if he’d fired off all the fireworks that he had. So what if Brook had failed. He at least would have gotten the respect from the boxing public for putting Golovkin in trouble in round 2. Instead of doing that, Brook landed only occasional shots in rounds 3, 4 and 5. He wasn’t attacking Golovkin with the flurries that he needed for him to have a chance of knocking him out. Jacobs has the size, speed and power to blitz Golovkin and take him out with a flurry of shots in the first couple of rounds. I wouldn’t wait longer than 2 rounds if I were Jacobs to go all out on Golovkin. If Jacobs makes the mistake of waiting until round 3 or 4 to flurry on Golovkin, he might not be still around by that point in the fight. Golovkin is going to land something big in the first couple of rounds that could knock Jacobs out of his boots. Believe me, if Golovkin gets Brook in trouble there will be no coming back. Jacobs will not survive the onslaught of power shots by GGG.
A fight winning strategy for Golovkin
Golovkin fought timidly in his two toughest fights of his career against David Lemieux and Curtis Stevens. In both fights, Golovkin mostly jabbed for the first 7 rounds before stopping them in round 8. That fight strategy is not the way to go for Triple G against Golovkin. That’s a risky strategy for Golovkin, because it’ll leave Jacobs around until the second half of the fight. You don’t want to do that if you’re Golovkin. The reason why is simple. Jacobs is like a human grenade. He can off at any time in the fight with one of his flurries. Jacobs and his trainer Andre Rozier has seen now how effective his flurries can be to defeat good fighters, so you have to expect that they might try the same thing against Golovkin. It would be the nuclear option for Jacobs to try in the fight. It would be one of those ‘break glass in case of emergency’ type options for Jacobs. I think he’ll definitely try it if things start looking bleak after he tastes some of Golovkin’s power early on in the fight. If Golovkin knocks Jacobs down at any point in the fight, I see him getting up off the canvas and opening up with a sustained flurry that will either see Golovkin knocked out or he himself stopped.