By Bob Smith: I will add my voice to those who are deeply skeptical of the chances of Kell Brook to defeat Gennady Golovkin in their fight on September 10th. Before going forward, it is worth pointing out that Kell Brook, though a top welterweight, is clearly not the best in his division, but is on the same tier as Porter, Thurman, and Spence. Before he attempts to go up one division, he should unify his own division. And I’m not sure that he could defeat either Spence or Thurman, especially if he does not have the home ring advantage.
Beyond that, there is no guarantee that Kell Brook is a top 10 junior middleweight. While he is a big welterweight, by definition, he fights smaller guys. The analogy would be Canelo, who can easily be 170s to 180s in the ring, taking on Kovalev or Ward – it would be foolish and a grave health concern for him to do so. Weight alone does not determine boxing proficiency in a division, despite Kell Brook’s attempt to achieve success in this fight by putting on weight and muscle. There is no way that Kell Brook would defeat Erislandy Lara or either of the Charlo brothers. And I don’t like his chances against Cotto, Andrade, or even Trout or Molina at 154.
Several fighters have voiced serious concern for his health and future as a boxer and as a person. Adrien Broner, who has experience moving up in weight to fight a puncher, has been outspoken in his opposition to this fight. Andre Berto views Brook as “crazy” for taking the fight, and recently Gabriel Rosado has voiced his concern. Successful trainer Robert Garcia at first though the fight was a joke, and thinks GGG is too powerful for Brook, and Mayweather explicitly repudiated the idea that he would move up to 160 to fight GGG, presumably for legitimate health concerns.
Let’s take a step back though. While a payday and money are important, so is the health and career of a boxer. This is a fighter who has been avoided by Peter Quillin, Saul Alvarez, Miguel Cotto, Felix Sturm, and Sergio Martinez, among others. I would not give Brook a chance of more than 20% against any of these fighters (when they were active and avoided Golovkin). Golovkin knocked out Curtis Stevens, a compact, hard punching former super middleweight who would obliterate Brook; he destroyed Marco Antonio Rubio in two rounds, the same Rubio that went 12 rounds with Julio Ceaser Chavez Jr. who effectively ended the career of Sergio Martinez. He has an 8 year, 21 fight KO streak, many of which were in world title fights.
It takes some extreme arrogance to move up two divisions to take on GGG in light of all of the above. But more than this, it takes a foolish and reckless disregard for your own health and well-being.
I do recall the tragedy of Magomed Abdusalamov, who suffered internal bleeding in his brain in his loss to Mike Perez in 2013. Due to a tragic accident Kovalev, sadly ended up causing the coma and later death of a Russian boxer Roman Simakov. This is a possible outcome if the referee and the trainer of Kell Brook do not keep an extremely close watch on the fight and stop the right or throw in the towel at the appropriate time. Clearly, Brook has show a severe lack of judgment in taking this fight and others need to step in to protect his career and health at the appropriate time.
Ideally for all involved, this fight will go like Golovkin vs Macklin – a 3rd round KO by a body shot, with maybe some broken ribs but no real lasting damage. I really hope that the KO is due to a body shot for Brook’s sake, for he could suffer lasting damage like Timothy Bradly did (versus Ruslan Provodnikov) if he tries to prove his “manliness” by absorbing blows from Golovkin with his face.
While the fights of Abdusalamov and Kovalev were tragedies, they were between two fighters in the division, and were the result of the poor decisions of the referees and doctors. If God forbid a sad outcome is the result of this fight, fights such as these, where one fighter moves up two divisions, without having any intermediate experience, should be banned. Regardless of money, I don’t believe that this fight should have been sanctioned – Brook still needs to prove himself by defeating Thurman and Spence, which I don’t believe that he can do, then a top 10 junior middleweight, then a junior middleweight contender or champion, then a middleweight top ten fighter, then a middleweight contender, then a middleweight champion. If he looks extremely good doing all of these things, I would say, fine, okay, good fight.
But without that background, such as it is now, the fight will be massacre. May it end quickly and peacefully with no lasting damage to Brook. The main responsibility for an outcome with no lasting damage at this point lies with the referee and the trainer of Kell Brook.