By Tom Hochbaum: Unfortunately, the following situation exemplifies the state of the sport of boxing right now: The best fighter in the Middleweight division is not currently considered the lineal champion, and it is not known if he will get a shot at becoming the lineal champ in the near future.
The fighter I am referring to is obviously the undefeated WBA and IBO Middleweight Champion from Kazakhstan, Gennady “Triple G” Golovkin. While it is quite frustrating as a boxing fan to watch an exciting fighter on a 19 fight knockout streak struggle to make fights against the biggest names in the sport, I think it is important not to oversimplify when evaluating the reasons for this.
As cliche as it sounds, it is necessary to understand that boxing is a business. This is not a typical sport that has a single governing body at the professional level which dictates match-ups, tournaments, playoffs, and champions etc… It seems obvious to have the #1 ranked fighter take on the #2, #3 fight #4 and so on. However, it is not as simple as that. With the current climate of the sport, one can’t even clearly determine those aforementioned rankings, as several belts and publications differ on both the pound for pound and weight class rankings. Aside from that road block, there are several other reasons why big fights can be difficult to make. Some fighters are signed to exclusive deals with rival networks (HBO and Showtime) making certain fights difficult or impossible to negotiate. Some managers and promotional teams never or rarely successfully negotiate fights with other teams or specific networks.
Maybe the most prevalent obstacle in the making of fights, is the boxers’ (and his management’s for that matter) evaluation of his opponent’s risk vs reward. This is the obstacle that has been the most difficult for GGG and his manager Tom Loeffler to overcome to this point. It is not a complicated concept to understand. Golovkin poses a great threat to any and all potential opponents in and around the 160-pound weight class. While he is rapidly gaining in popularity, he is demolishing his opposition in doing so. His growing marketability makes him a more lucrative opponent than he was previously and in turn more appealing to future opponents. On the other hand, his impressive amateur pedigree, fearsome KO streak and terminator style makes him less appealing every time he mows down a top 10 contender in his division without much difficulty. He has to fight the best fighters available who believe he is worth the risk, and that has not been a popular belief.
Don’t be mistaken though, this goes both ways. While Andre Ward has been basically dormant since Golovkin made his United States debut, the 168-pound champ would have probably been willing to fight Triple G at some point in the last 12-18 months if both sides could have agreed. However, the timing and other issues just have yet to line up. Ward had serious promotional problems and spent years in litigation. Andre also presents an unbelievable risk to Golovkin’s undefeated record (something that has become maybe too important in recent years, but that ‘0’ is the subject for an entirely different article.) If Golovkin were to take a loss while still building his reputation as the top middleweight in the world it could potentially hinder his abilities to get the biggest fights. While Andre Ward may present the toughest challenge for Golovkin, he probably does not present the nearly greatest reward for him. To add to this, Andre Ward’s trainer Virgil Hunter has been quoted saying that Andre needs a tune-up fight or two in the near future to avoid issues with ring rust due to his inactivity. So, again, the timing of this fight is important to consider.
So what is in store for Gennady Golovkin? I think the way Tom Loeffler and his team have handled him gives us some indication. Loeffler has GGG fighting 3-4 times every year to increase his exposure. These are not just random selections for opponents, either. Golovkin fights MWs that provide different styles and challenges to him with every fight. Murray was a big middleweight, very good defensively who had a ton of experience fighting top level opponents and had one controversial decision loss. Rubio had been in with some top opposition and has a ton of power with lots of KOs including a big win over the tough David Lemieux.
Daniel Geale is a former champion with great movement. Curtis Stevens has huge one punch power and was calling Golovkin out at every turn. Matthew Macklin was supposed to be the biggest test after giving Sturm and Martinez tough fights. Gabe Rosado is a quick and tough kid who later nearly beat Kid Chocolate, if it weren’t for cuts he may have. Proska was an undefeated southpaw for GGG’s US debut.
Next up is Willie Monroe Jr. What does he provide? Willie beat two undefeated fighters en route to a Boxcino tournament win. Willie does lack big power but he has both foot and hand speed. He has excellent boxing ability and Golovkin wanted to challenge himself against a different style, a slick boxing southpaw.
With these past fights and the climate of the sport considered, let’s look down the line a little bit if Golovkin can get past Monroe with the same ease he has in his previous 32 wins. Miguel Cotto is the WBC champion who at some point should be forced to fight his mandatory challenger (Triple G) or vacate the belt. If he vacates, as many expect, Golovkin would be given the opportunity to fight the next highest WBC ranked opponent for the title. If Cotto accepts the fight, Golovkin gets the opportunity that he has been waiting for. That is a win/win as long as the WBC forces Cotto’s hand should he decide against the risk of fighting GGG.
Aside from Cotto, Golovkin can look to unify other belts at Middleweight by fighting the winner of either Peter Quillin vs Andy Lee or Hassam N’Dam vs David Lemieux. Golovkin has been unable to make a fight with Quillin for some time now, as the Quillin’s promoter Al Haymon doesn’t work with HBO which is Gennady’s network. Some wonder if Quillin sees Golovkin as a bit too risky as well. I do not doubt that the fight with Lee could get made should he come out on top vs Quillin. Lee and Golovkin reportedly came close to finalizing a fight at least once in the past two years or so. N’Dam and Lemieux would provide nearly opposite challenges for Golovkin stylistically; N’Dam being a patient boxer with skills and movement and Lemieux known for his ferocity and power. It remains to be seen how easily a fight with either of these two could be made for Golovkin, but one would assume that either fighter would relish the opportunity to build their smaller names by attempting to fight the best in the division.
While Golovkin navigates his way through those potential Middleweight bouts, he can also consider a few names in the divisions around him that could become possibilities. Canelo Alvarez has been fighting at a catch-weight of 155-pounds, which technically is the Middleweight class as it falls over the 154-pound limit for Jr Middles and under the 160-pound Middleweight limit. Canelo has shown a willingness to fight the best no matter where they fall on the risk/reward scale as evidenced by the Erislandy Lara fight. Canelo has some “machismo” in him and being called out by Lara was enough to make that fight happen. I don’t think Canelo’s promoters loved the idea of him taking on Lara, but Lara was only considered dangerous because of his speed and movement. It is tough to tell if Canelo would be able to convince his team to allow him to fight a boxer like Golovkin who is dangerous because of his pressure style and punching power. Boxing fans everywhere would rejoice if this fight were made because both fighters love to come forward and trade punches and each fighter possesses power in either hand. Golovkin would certainly welcome the notoriety gained by fighting an extremely popular fighter within the always prevalent Mexican boxing community.
Two interesting names in the division just above Golovkin are Carl Froch and Julio Caesar Chavez Jr. Several comments made by Froch make that match seem unlikely, however his promoter Eddie Hearn has stated that the Golovkin fight could be possible somewhere down the line. As for Chavez Jr, GGG almost got his opportunity with son of the Mexican legend last year before negotiations fell through. Allegedly, Julio’s now former promoter, Bob Arum, had offered Chavez Jr more money to fight Golovkin if he were to sign a multiple fight extension which he was unwilling to do. Reportedly, Arum made Chavez Jr a very lucrative single-fight offer as well, but apparently was not enough to risk fighting GGG (back to that pesky risk vs reward obstacle mentioned above). Since then, Chavez has been taking to Twitter and challenging Golovkin. He went as far as to bet $1 million that he would knock GGG out, to which Golovkin’s people quickly replied with a resounding “challenge accepted”. So one would imagine that the ground-work for that fight has certainly been laid and could come to fruition soon.
This brings us back to Andre Ward. It wouldn’t be crazy to assume that Gennady Golovkin will have fought 5 more times by the end of May 2016. By that time, the inactive Ward may have one or two tune-up fights under his belt and Golovkin will have had a chance to fight several of the other options listed above. Golovkin’s team has reportedly had preliminary talks with Ward’s people and the word is that a fight could be in the cards at some point in 2016. This time frame seems to make sense for both sides.
Only time will tell what becomes of Gennady Golovkin and other high risk fighters in the game today. Boxing fans do not have the luxury of depending on the best to fight the best competition when they want it due to their sport morphing into a relatively ungoverned business. However, the boxing business is still an exciting one, and things are shaping up as stars have begun to align to make some memorable fights!
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