Who’s next in the Floyd Mayweather Lottery? An Analysis and Prediction

By WarMaidana - 05/15/2013 - Comments

floyd666By Dallas Orysiuk: Floyd “Money” Mayweather is arguably one of the greatest boxers of all time, and undoubtedly the current number one pound for pound fighter in the world. Being the highest paid athlete, thanks to his 6 fight deal with ShowTime, he has 5 fights left to go. The question looms whether Floyd will fulfill the contract and fight the total of 6 fights. “Money” definitely will fight a few more times, and the way he looked against Guerrero there is no doubt that Floyd still has plenty left in the tank.

After his masterful performance and the absolute destruction of the tough, always game, Robert “The Ghost” Guerrero, the question is who can offer Floyd any challenge whatsoever, and who will Floyd pick for their next career high pay day? Here is a breakdown of all potential opponents, realistic or not.

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez

The obvious number one pick at the moment is Saul “Canelo” Alvarez. Next to a Pacquiao show down, this is the most lucrative fight that Floyd and ShowTime can sign. The unbeaten and charismatic Mexican, toting a record of 42-0-1, is a rising star in the boxing game. The 22 year old, ginger Mexican with his signature red hair, knockout power and combination punching draws fans from all walks of life…. From the casual to hardcore boxing fans, and drawing a predominantly Mexican fan base, there is tremendous hype behind Canelo.

But does beating tomato cans, over the hill fighters, and blown up welterweights, albeit in a dominant fashion, warrant a fight with Mayweather? Many think so. Coming off his first real test, Canelo edged out Austin Trout in a close unanimous decision, showing his vulnerability and also his strengths. There is no doubt Trout was a significant win. The punching power was apparent the way he staggered and dropped trout, and his head movement was great. But will a low work rate, and stamina issues be problems for Saul if he were to fight Mayweather?

There is one barrier, the question of the weight. Being a big junior middleweight, would Floyd really want to fight Alvarez at 154, or would he make him come down to 147? Since Floyd has fought at 154 twice before, is the reigning pound for pound king, and holds a belt at 154, there is no way that the fight shouldn’t take place at 154. Regardless, with Alvarez promoted by Floyd’s partners at Golden Boy promotions, this is the most likely matchup for a September showdown. Alvarez is young, hungry and powerful, so this should be a good matchup. Skill wise Floyd is way better than Canelo… but the size and punching power could pose problems for Floyd.

Despite the talk that Mayweather wants the fight to take place at welterweight…. This is the most likely match-up for September. Mayweather likes to lead us in circles before his decision is revealed, and this is the most realistic fight that makes sense financially for September.

Sergio Martinez

One of the top ten pound for pound fighters in the world, Sergio “Maravilla” Martinez has wanted a fight with Floyd for quite some time. A middleweight, yet a very small one, with blazing hand speed and tremendous KO power, is probably Floyd’s greatest test at the moment. The 2010 fighter of the year, gained his fame from the brutal (knockout of the year in 2010) of the iron chinned Paul Williams. This was followed up with subsequent impressive knockout performances. With a record of 51-2-2, Martinez has won his last 7 fights. A solid career punctuated by victories over Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, Matthew Macklin, Paul Williams, Kelly Pavlik, just to name a few. A late start at the age of 21 has allowed Martinez to remain extremely dangerous still at the age of 38.

But after his last fight, a close fought unanimous decision over Martin Murray, some argue that father time has caught up with Martinez. Or did Chavez Jr wreck Martinez? This is what some have said. Suffering torn ligaments in his knee acquired in his win over Chavez Jr, Martinez was fresh off surgery versus Murray. With the fight being outside in the rain, and the recovering knee, there is no wonder why Martinez, who relies on his slick style based on ring movement, did not look like himself. And there is the fact that he broke his hand during the fight. Is this all because of age?

Regardless, with these conditions, I think it was impressive that Martinez pulled out the win. It was clear that after seeing the size advantage that Murray and Chavez had over Martinez, that Martinez is not a big middleweight. And remember Maravilla has stated he would move down to 154 for the right fight. Regardless of age and injuries, I’m sure Martinez would jump on the chance to fight Floyd, sooner rather than later. With his speed, footwork, and power, this would arguably be Floyd’s toughest challenger of the bunch. With the hands down style, and the questionable defense, Martinez is no stranger to tasting the canvas. Going against Floyd’s accuracy, the match-up poses to be an intriguing one. But unfortunately for all boxing fans, the matchups like this that we salivate for…. Very rarely happen.

Devon Alexander

The IBF welterweight titlist Devon Alexander supports an impressive record of 24-1-0, and holds impressive victories over Marcos Maidana, Lucas Matthysse, Andriy Kotelnik and Junior Witter…. regardless of how questionable some of the decision may have been.

Alexander recently moved up to welterweight defeating Maidana and then capturing the IBF title by defeating the hard hitting, low work rate, Randall Bailey in a snooze fest. With good boxing skills, good footwork and blazing hand speed, some have said this would be a good fight for Floyd… although most, including myself, have no desire to see this matchup.

Showing a lack of heart over Timothy Bradley, constantly grappling Maidana, and doing very little against Bailey has turned many fans away from Alexander. It is a wonder why Floyd mentioned Alexander as a potential opponent, but that got some fans wondering if this matchup is looming around the corner sometime. There was talk of a Mayweather and Guerrero showdown over a year ago, and no one thought the matchup was realistic, but then it happened… so maybe we could see a showdown with Alexander in the future, probably not this September, but at some point in the remaining five fights… although I sure hope not.

Amir Khan

Floyd Mayweather has said he wants to fight in the UK, so who better than Olympic silver medalist Amir Khan (28-3-0). Unless Mayweather would fight Kell Brook… yeah right. Amir Khan has tremendous talent, in part due to his blazing hand speed, and a big heart. But there is always the question of his chin… which we have seen checked lots, in his first loss (and knockout to Breidis Prescott), then in the 2011 fight of the year, a close fought victory over Marcos Maidana, a knockout loss to Danny Garcia, and his most recent fight where he was dropped and staggered but held on to defeat Julio Diaz. The matchup has been talked about for some time, and Amir regardless of his defeats, has continued to call out Mayweather.

The match-up looked intriguing given Khans popularity, hype, his hand speed, and rangy straight punching which stylistically may cause Mayweather some problems. But then came the controversial loss to Lamont Peterson, followed by the KO defeat to Garcia which led to the firing of his trainer Freddie Roach and the hiring of Virgil Hunter. Coming off two wins since his last defeat, Khan looks to make a move to 147 and if he defeats someone of the likes of Devon Alexander this looks like a potential matchup, not likely this September but sometime in 2014. Amir can ruin Alexander’s chances at the Mayweather lottery as a fight has been talked about between the two for December, or will it be Alexander to ruin Khans chances?

Danny Garcia

One of the hottest fighters in the game…. Supporting a record of 26-0 with 16 KO’s Garcia has impressive victories over Erik Morales twice (once by KO), a devastating KO over Amir Khan, and a tough fought victory over Zab Judah. Danny Garcia has punching power, great timing, and accuracy. He isn’t spectacular in one category, but is good in all facets, and seemingly finds ways to win with his mid-range fighting style.

With the Puerto Rican and American fan base, his wild talking and entertaining father…. This is a matchup that could carry some hype down the road. The matchup was mentioned for September but is highly unlikely, Garcia hasn’t fought at welterweight yet, and is supposed to fight the winner of Peterson vs. Matthysse. However, I have a feeling if Matthysse comes out victorious, this fight will not happen. Regardless, this matchup will probably happen at some point, but probably not until later in Mayweather’s contract. I would like to see a win over Matthysse/Peterson first, and at least one fight at welterweight…. Although stylistically I cannot see Garcias style posing any sort of problem to the highly skilled Floyd “Money” Mayweather.

Other Options

The list of other potential opponents, that are less likely to happen, but could potentially occur at some point are the obvious option in Manny Pacquaio… but with the issue of purse split, drug testing, his recent KO loss and promotional feuds, unfortunately this matchup is unlikely to happen. I will not devote an entire section to Manny Pacquiao as an opponent because there have been hundreds of articles about this fight and it is starting to lose luster. It isn’t as meaningful, but would still be a very lucrative and intriguing fight. Personally, of all the fights mentioned above, I prefer this fight. Although his lack of defense has been exposed, Pacquiao still has the hand speed, footwork and power to pose as one of Mayweather’s biggest threats.

There is talk of a Cotto rematch. Cotto gave Mayweather a tough fight where he bloodied his nose and won a handful of rounds. But that was because Mayweather wanted to go toe to toe, now back with his father and fighting more defensively, I doubt the match would be as close the second time around. There is Matthysse if he continues to impress and come out victorious of the 140 lb tournament. This match-up is high risk and little reward, so I doubt it ever happens. The hard hitting Argentinean, Marcos Maidana is a potential option, be it that he is promoted by Golden Boy and he fights at welterweight. There is Austin Trout, and even chance for a potential Ortiz rematch. But coming off of a long layoff and a broken jaw, Ortiz needs a few soft tune ups and needs to gain the respect of boxing fans again before he will get a rematch.

What I see happening is Floyd fighting, and derailing the Canelo hype train but generating a lot of money in the process. Then it is hard to predict the order because there are a number of scenarios that could play out, but I see Devon Alexander at some time, Amir Khan, a long overdue and slightly meaningless Pacquiao fight and a highly anticipated fight with Danny Garcia to finish off his career.



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