By Chris Williams: It’s difficult to really get an accurate gauge on the October 13th fight between IBF/WBO super bantamweight champion Nonito Donaire (29-1, 18 KO’s) and former WBC super bantamweight champion Toshiaki Nishioka (39-4-3, 24 KO’s) at the Home Depot Center in Carson, California. The reason why it’s so difficult to get a handle on this fight is because the 36-year-old Nishioka is so highly ranked by Ring Magazine and the sanctioning bodies despite the fact that he looked absolutely horrible in his last fight and many of his fights during his career.

From what I’ve seen of Nishioka, I just see this fight as another one of Donaire’s safe mismatches. Nishioka, never really great to begin with, is starting to show his age and Donaire has got the fight at the right time. But I don’t think Nishioka would beat Donaire at any point in his career. Nishioka has beaten four times and you can make a strong argument that he deserved to lose in the three draws that he’s had. That’s basically a fighter with seven losses on his resume and who now is 36 and is coming off of a fight against pretty well shot Rafael Marquez, who gave Nishioka all kinds of problems last October.

Like I said, Donaire should win this fight no problem but if Nishioka is as good as the Ring Magazine and the sanctioning bodies seem to think he is then Donaire may struggle and lose. I don’t think so. I think the Ring magazine and sanctioning bodies have inflated his ranking based on wins over Rendall Munroe, a British fighter with little power, and Jhonny Gonzalez, another flawed fighter.

I believe that Nishioka is a just an excuse for Donaire to avoid the much more dangerous threats at super bantamweight like Guillermo Rigondeaux and Abner Mares. I see those guys as the real top fighters in the division, and it’s interesting how Donaire is choosing to fight guys like Jeffrey Mathebula, Wilfredo Vazquez Jr and Nishioka, who the casual boxing fans in the U.S have never heard of, instead of facing the better known Mares and Rigondeaux.

We likely would have seen Donaire fighting Jorce Arce, who I feel is a step down from Nishioka, if Arce hadn’t priced himself out of the fight. That would have been an even easier fight for Donaire than the Nishioka bout in my view because Arce doesn’t belong at super bantamweight and he has unfinished business with Jesus M Rojas, who was working Arce over big time at the time Arce went down in the 2nd round and was unable to continue fighting.

Nishioka will make it interesting because he does have some skills, but at 36 he’s not going to beat a fighter like Donaire. I expect the fight to go the distance unless Nishioka suffers and cut, which is a good possibility given his history of suffering cuts in his fights.

I’d like to see Donaire step it up after he beats Nishioka and finally fight Rigondeaux or Mares, but I suspect Bob Arum will try and make the Donaire-Arce fight after this. And who knows what will come following an Arce-Donaire fight?