By JW Ryan: I’m going to try and propose why I feel David Haye will win the upcoming fight against Wladimir Klitschko on July 2nd in Germany.

I appreciate the doubters that take issue with his perceived lack of power in the heavyweight ranks, why did he take so long so take out John Ruiz? He put him on the floor twice in the first round, surely a healthy sign, why didn’t he jump all over him and get the job done, this is the key point which we will refer to again and again…Carl the cat?…He gave a textbook example of punching himself out of any energy reserves and ended up losing. During the Ruiz fight time and again there were thunderous shots going in but he stepped off, knowing he had hurt his man and there was no immediate need to expend any more energy, the accumulation of these blows was going to tell.

Why did he not thunder into Audley Harrison? Again, he knew he had the power and knew to stick to a game plan. I personally doubt Harrison had the ability even given the opportunity of a free shot, to knock down Haye, but it was the control against a far lesser opponent which I found impressive.

With the Nikolay Valuev fight, another aspect of Haye’s athleticism became apparent the perceived lack of stamina, the love of a dust up that would eventually lead him to trade with the giant…didn’t come, nor did David Haye look like a man that had just gone 12 rounds in a heavyweight world championship.

To touch on the previous Monte Barrett and Enzo Maccarinelli fights, it was I personally believe a transition period, the change from cruiserweight to heavyweight and worse of all home crowd syndrome. I think Haye is at his biggest risk in front of his home crowd with everyone baying for blood, he loves the toe to toe trade…I think Adam Booth has instilled a further level of strategy to Haye, knowing he will be fighting consistently bigger and heavier men needs further refinement in game plan and for me the last three fights in particular have shown a maturity about Haye’s boxing.

I feel heavyweight boxing needs a change, and for me Klitschko has been in so many fights that there are traits very visible in his armoury, take a look through recent fights, stuff jab to tee-up the overhand right, it happens time and again. Experience is gold in boxing, but a time comes when there are no more tricks on display and you resort to technical safety waiting for your opponent to let his guard down for one moment then back to type.

Klitschko has not knocked down an opponent in less than 6 rounds for over 4 years, given the generic shape of those same challengers, what was their physical condition come rounds 7-10? They were physical empty!. By holding the centre of the ring and keeping the fight at distance energy was conserved and as soon as the left hand was dropped, right over the top and it was game over. How many punches will Haye land in the same 6 rounds? If only 5 or 6 are landed flush then there won’t be anywhere near the same sting in Klitschko’s right hand

Consider the amount of short combinations Haye threw against Valuev and stayed on his bike for 12 rounds. Valuev was immeasurably harder to hit, if the fight does go into the latter stages you won’t have a fresh Klitschko in the centre of the ring, he will have taken plenty of punishment, the 3 inch reach difference won’t matter one bit if the foot speed and movement is correct.

I don’t believe a word of Emanuel Stewart’s, ‘we’ll do him in four rounds’ – simply rubbish. This will return to type on Klitschko’s part, fight at length and wear Haye down. I believe Haye will take his time in creating an opening. I see the game falling into 3 sub-divisions, a dull opening 2-3 rounds where both fighters will be extra cautious, the middle rounds where Haye will look to offload some heavy punches and the stark truth will be whether his punches are having a telling impact. I suspect somewhere between rounds 8-10 the accumulation of shots from Haye will be telling. Haye must maneuver around a stiff jab and be cautious of the right hand, but Klitschko will not have the hand speed or footwork of Haye.

I think Haye will win it late, I see a tame couple of opening rounds as Klitschko will expect Haye to thunder in, but I think the likely knock out will be in rounds 8-10. I think fatigue works both ways, and I don’t believe Haye’s punch power will wain into the latter stages as was evident against Valuev in the 12th.