By Nick Bannister: The P4P rankings have a mythical status in boxing, a theoretical ranking based as much on opinion as hard evidence, designed to rate boxers across the weight classes to see who is the best in the world. While gut instinct plays a huge role and opinions differ, it is usually hard to argue too much with the findings of the the judging panel, and when you compare the varying P4P ratings, the level of agreement is usually considerable, indicating that those considered the best probably are. In this article, I will look at the Ring rankings, and judge the prospects each of the fighters have of staying there. In the next article, I’ll look at the guys who have a chance of entering or reentering the rankings in the next 12 months.

No1. Manny Pacquiao. There is only one way Manny will end the year as anything other than as number one, and that is if he fights Floyd Mayweather and loses. This seems a distant prospect. Manny seems more likely to beat up on Mosley in May and then maybe fight again late in the year. On current evidence, it’s hard to see a particularly competetive fight on the horizon, so it’s hard to see him slipping down the rankings. Manny might not be dazzling like he did between 2003 and 2008, but he is the top guy, and is highly likely to be the top guy come Jan 2012.

No2. Floyd Mayweather. Floyd is the most naturally gifted technician of his generation, and Manny’s only realistic threat for welterweight and P4P supremacy. If they fight this year, he’ll end the year as number one or two, if they don’t, he may well not fight, and be dropped for inactivity. Other possibilities, such as a fight with Amir Khan or Sergio Martinez, seem remote possibilities as things currently stand. All fans (including myself) will hope I am wrong and that a fight is made from somewhere, so long as he is even free to fight after his upcoming court appearances.

No3. Sergio Martinez. With his comprehensive defeats of Pavlik and Williams at middleweight in 2010, Sergio is in the odd position of having reached his peak but having no one truly compelling to face. He seems likely to face Dzinziruk in March, and there is an outside chance of a move to super middleweight for Bute or a move to light middleweight for Mayweather, but in all likelihood, Sergio will have to settle for lesser fighters who he will beat comfortably. With no significant challenges on the horizon, expect him to end near up where he started by the year’s end, possibly at 2 if Mayweather stays inactive, and at 4 or 5 if Donaire (see below) or Ward (see next article) have a cracking year.

No4. Juan Manuel Marquez. The Mexican legend had a superb 2010, after a mixed 2009, and looked back to his best in beating Katsidis and Diaz, after a long layoff following the Mayweather defeat. He will face off with Morales in what will probably be a money spinning one sided beatdown in April, but this is hopefully a one off. Having run out of credible opposition at lightweight, and with a third Pacquiao fight off the table, a move to light-welterweight in mid or late 2011 seems the obvious choice, given his stated intention to be the first Mexican to win titles in four weight classes. A fight with Marcos Maidana would have fans salivating, and be an excellent and brave introduction to the division, but to win a title he would need to get to Khan, Bradley or Alexander. All of these guys present significant risks, but could bring significant reward, and if he wins he will restate his legendary status. The first real uncertainty of the list, Marquez could start to age and take a beating from a lesser fighter, or he could continue to amaze and win yet another major title. Nothing would surprise me with Juan Manuel, a man who seems to get better with age, but cannot do so indefinately. My gut instinct is that 140 at 38 is a step too far, and that he will slip down the rankings, but I hope I’m wrong.

No5. Nonito Donaire. Donaire is a supremely gifted boxer. Fast, eye catching, good balance and with one punch KO power, he might be the most complete fighter under 30 anywhere in boxing. He has lacked a truly significant fight since his one punch KO of Darchinyan in 2007, but with P4P No7 Montiel just 5 weeks away, he has probably the toughest test of any top 10 guy (apart from Montiel of course) currently scheduled. At 28, with the height and natural physique to move toward the more well known divisions, a win for Donaire could propel him first to the Mares-Agbeko winner for Bantamweight supremacy, and then on to Juan Manuel Lopez or Yuriorkis Gamboa at featherweight, though that may wait until 2012. If he beats Montiel and then Mares or Agbeko, expect to see a top 3 placing, if he loses along the way, he’ll drop down or out of the rankings. My guess is that Donaire will keep winning, and in 2-3 years when the four above him are retired or on the decline, he could end up at the top of the pile.

No6. Pongsaklek Wonjonkam. Clearly the power in a division few (including myself) know much about, Pongsaklek has a formidable record and is one of only 6 Ring recognised champions. At 33, most analysts think he is slightly past his best, but also that there are few credible opponents that will significantly test him. If this is true, expect to see him drift slightly downward, as some of the guys below seem poised to move up. Truth be told however, this writer has to admit to a certain degree of guesswork on this most impressive, but to Western fans, frustratingly little known fighter.

No7. Fernando Montiel. The Mexican veteran is regarded by many as the best Mexican in boxing, which with Segura and Marquez around, is a major accolade. His brilliant ending of Hasegawa’s 5 year reign as world champion elevated him to P4P player, and was without doubt an incredible performance, though his only other fight in 2010 was a relatively easy win over Rafael Concepcion. If he wins against Donaire he will become a major star among boxing fans, and will get the opportunity for undisputed supremacy against Mares or Agbeko that Donaire is also looking for. My prediction is that Donaire will be slightly too much for him, and that Montiel will lose a potentially classic fight, and drop outside the Top 10, though he could end up at number 5 with a win.

No8. Wladimir Klitschko. Unfortunately the fight with Haye keeps getting pushed back, though unbeaten Derek Chisora and exciting and highly skilled former cruiserweight champ Tomasz Adamek are just about the best alternatives that could be found for now. The lack of quality opposition that has kept the Ring heavyweight champion from the top end of the rankings is an unfair reflection on a brilliant and underrated righter, but reflects what has been a horribly weak division since the retirement of Lennox Lewis. Unless he completely destroys Adamek and gains a place or two, expect two decent wins and an unchanged rating for Wlad for 2011.

No9. Timothy Bradley. Arguably the most interesting case in the top 10. Bradley has beaten significant challengers in Holt, Peterson and Witter over the last few years to earn his No1 status at 140lbs, but this has only earned him tougher challenges in 2011 in Devon Alexander, and if he wins that, potentially Amir Khan and maybe Juan Manuel Marquez. Bradley is supremely quick, and I suspect he will be far to quick and clever for the relatively inexperienced Devon Alexander. Unfortunately, I suspect that his lack of height and power might be his undoing against Amir Khan. Whether he can get inside Khan in what is likely to be a summer matchup is likely to decide whether it is he or the young Brit who finishes the year in the top 10. Keep winning and a top 5 placing is in sight, lose and it will go to Khan. I’m thoroughly looking forward to seeing this division develop in 2011.

No10. Juan Manuel Lopez. Having begun to take over from Miguel Cotto as Puerto Rico’s most impressive boxer, Lopez entered the top ten in late 2010 after his impressive performance against veteran Rafael Marquez (Juan Manuel’s younger brother), in which Marquez was forced to quit on his stool with an injury. A rematch seems likely, on the way to a featherweight superfight in late 2011 with Cuban whirlwind Yuriorkis Gamboa. Lopez is a clever and powerful pressure fighter, who looks way too big to only weight 126lbs, and has overwhelmed many opponents with some impressive performances. He does however have some significant flaws in his game, such as a slightly plodding style and open defence, and has sustained serious abuse from Rogers Mtagwa in a fight he barely survived, and from Marquez, who he outclassed at times but was hurt by on occasions. He will think Gamboa is made for him, Gamboa will likely think the same about Lopez. The winner, and possibly the loser as well, is likely to be a P4P star for years to come, and unfortunately for Lopez I would just favour Gamboa, provided Gamboa can keep on the move. Lopez to lose his place in late 2011, but he is young enough and good enough to come again in 2012.

So, that’s the current Top 10. To recap, I think that next year, Pacquiao, Martinez, Donaire and Klitchko are sure to be in the rankings, leaving up to 6 spaces for challengers to take, though it is not by any means certain that any spaces will emerge, barring the likely departure of the loser of Donaire-Montiel. In part two, I will look at the potential entrants to the rankings, and make a (probably ill advised) stab at guessing the overall makeup of the top 10 this time next year.