By Reynaldo Sanchez – boxeoeditores.com/ – Photo credit: Naoki Fakuda – The Filipino Flash, Nonito Donaire will be stepping into ring once again this February 19 from the Mandalay Bay Casino in Las Vegas. His opponent will be the formidable Mexican champion Fernando “Kochulito” Montiel. The fight has raised the interest of boxing fans all across the globe that are always yearning for mega fights. The Mexican – Filipino rivalry is being used to create interest in the promotion of this fight that is being sold as a challenge between two great fighters.

Press releases from each camp, and declarations from the fighters, point to the fact that this is the most important bout, of each of the fighters’ careers. A victory will put the name of the winner very high in the P4P list. This ranking has turned into the obsession of all the boxers, as they all want to be included in it. It seems that, to be in the P4P rankings, is more important than to be classified by one of organizations like the WBA, WBC, or WBO.

Analysts of the most important digital media think that this is a big
fight, but, I have noticed that very few try to predict a possible winner; this I imagine is for fear of being wrong and loosing credibility as boxing experts.

In my opinion, the Montiel-Donaire fight will be very close. Both boxers
are extremely technical, very physical, and have very experienced teams in their corners. These two factors, plus the rivalry that has between created between Pacquiao and Marquez, and the fights which occurred between the Philippine star with Barrera and Morales, point out that this will be another battle Mexico and the Philippines in which anyone can achieve a victory.

Nevertheless, I will try to make an analysis, which includes the elements that give us a broader idea of the probability of victory for each fighter. Between these elements we can enumerate the most out-standing;

1.-Power
2.-Speed
3.-Resistance
4.-Physical advantages

We have of course have other elements that can be analyzed such as, common rivals, corner, and some others, but I will support my analysis based on the four principal elements listed above.

POWER

Nonito has a 65 percent ratio of KO as a result of 17 KOs in 26 fights.
Nevertheless it is important to mention that in this total he has 11 TKOs that thus reduce his number of effective KO’s to 6, which means 23 % in 26 fights. In his fight with Montiel he will have to face a rival that has boxed at the bantamweight limit on many occasions. Also, the totals of Montiel’s KOs add to 34, between them 17 by TKO, which limits his effective KOs to 17 thus giving him 35 percent ratio in 48 combats. This points out to us that according to the numbers Montiel possesses an advantage in this category.

SPEED.-

Both Donaire and Montiel are boxers with average speed and it is quiet
difficult to establish who has an advantage. Both possess speed in their
hands and legs, and it is an element very even between the two where the conditioning of the fighters on the night of the bout could be the deciding factor in providing a difference in this category.

RESISTANCE.

Montiel has fought against boxers the likes of Hasegawa with whom he had a very tough bout. Donaire in the other hand has Darchinyan in his resume as the hardest puncher his faced. Vic, however, did not land enough hard punches to establish an idea of the filipino’s resistance. Nevertheless, Nonito did not look good when he faced Concepcion who isn’t a big puncher as Montiel. This fight against Rafael Concepcion in the bantamweight class, show us that the Philippine perhaps will have problems when he faces a fighter with the power such as the one the Mexican posses. In this section, it seems that Montiel acquires a better classification than Nonito.

PHYSICAL ADVANTAGES

Little to add here as the reach and height are clearly are in favor of the
Philippine fighter. These advantages if used correctly will level the
playing filed the night of the fight. Nonito possesses physical
characteristics to reach the Mexican comfortably. Montiel has faced boxers that surpass him in these two maters in the past and he could eliminate these advantages. However, undoubtedly this category is dominated widely by Donaire.

PREDICTION

It IS difficult to choose a winner in this bout, despite that I consider
it rational to choose one of them based on the parameters listed above.

The numbers are only statistics. In the boxing the numbers don’t have the value that they possess in other sports. We have seen boxers with little opportunity, based on their record; win a fight they were supposed to lose. Also we always have the judges to consider. These judges, sometimes see fights different from what other people observe and they alone determine the results. If there are no unforeseen surprises, I believe that Montiel will impose his experience and power, and he will knockout Nonito’s in the late rounds after a very hard fight.