By Dan Ambrose: The March 12th junior middleweight clash between WBA junior middleweight champion Miguel Cotto (35-2, 28 KO’s) and Ricardo Mayorga (29-7-1, 23 KO’s) really boils down to the least shot fighter winning in this fight that takes place at the MGM Grand, in Las Vegas, Nevada. While Cotto is technically the World Boxing Association champion by virtue of Cotto beating one of Bob Arum’s Top Ranks stable fighters Yuri Foreman after he sustained a bad leg injury last year in July, it’s hard to see Cotto as anything more than a fading fighter that looks nothing like what he once was before suffering a terrible beating at the hands of Antonio Margarito in 2008.

Since then, Cotto has looked nothing special in a narrow controversial win over Joshua Clottey and then another beating by Manny Pacquiao. At this point, Cotto would be lucky to beat a lot of the top junior middleweights in the division. Arum, being clever, has selected and old and rusty one in the 37-year-old Mayorga instead of a younger and much more dangerous guy like Alfredo Angulo or Vanes Martirosyan.

This at least gives Cotto a chance in winning, but still the fight is one where you can’t really tell who will win. Mayorga looked more than good enough to soundly beat Cotto in his last fight against Michael Walker in December, stopping him in the 9th round. However, when you get a fighter like Mayorga, you never know what you’re going to get. The Mayorga that beat Walker will stop Cotto and badly beat him. But the Mayorga that fought Oscar De La Hoya in 2006, will lose to Cotto by an early knockout. It really comes down to Mayorga jumping on Cotto early and keeping the hammer down until Cotto busts and swells up like often does when he starts getting hit regularly.