By William Mackay: Although the negotiations for a fight between World Boxing Council light heavyweight champion Jean Pascal (25-1, 16 KO’s) and WBC light heavyweight interim champion Chad Dawson 29-0, 17 KO’s) haven’t been ironed out yet, this is a fight that is sure to bring excitement to the light heavyweight division when the fight is finally announced. There is a question whether the 27-year-old Pascal’s right shoulder will be healed by June 19th. The date may have to be pushed back beyond that date depending on how well Pascal’s recently injured shoulder responds to training.
Pascal dislocated his right shoulder in the 3rd round of his bout of his 12 round unanimous decision win over Canadian based Adrian Diaconu on December 11th. Pascal was forced to get by using his left hand for most of the remainder of the rounds against the hard hitting Diaconu. In the 10th round, Pascal re-injured his right shoulder after landing a right hand to the head of Diaconu. Pascal immediately pulled away after landing the punch and retreated to the corner looking at the referee for him to stop the action. Thankfully, the round ended just at that time.
Incredibly, Pascal was able to control the last two rounds with his left hand and end up winning the fight by the scores of 117-111, 117-111 and 118-110. As good as this victory was for Pascal, he’s going to have to be a lot better if he wants to beat a fighter like Dawson. Not only is Dawson a much better fighter than Diaconu, but he’s also a lot bigger than Diaconu at 6’1” compared to the 5’9” Romanian.
Pascal won’t win against Dawson if his shoulder gives out on him again, so he needs to make sure that it’s 100% by the time he steps in the ring with the American Dawson. Additionally, Dawson will have a two inch height advantage over Pascal and an incredible 11” inch reach advantage over Pascal. That’s a pretty significant number when you consider that Pascal isn’t going to have a speed advantage over the blazing fast Dawson like he normally does against his opponents.
Pascal, who slaps a lot with his shots, also isn’t likely going to knock Dawson out either. If Pascal wins the fight, he’s going to have to figure out a way to beat Dawson by a decision. Giving up a foot in reach to Dawson may be too much for Pascal to make up. He doesn’t have great stamina, so Pascal won’t be able to plan on walking Dawson down and trying to wear him down in the later rounds.
Carl Froch exposed Pascal’s stamina in his 12 round decision win over Pascal in December 2008. More than likely, Pascal will be at his best in the first half of the fight, and thereafter he will steadily fade against the bigger, rangier Dawson. My guess is Pascal ends up being beaten as bad Antonio Tarver was in his two losses against Dawson.
At best, I see Pascal winning three, maybe four rounds if he’s fighting well, but no more than that. This is going to be like a good super middleweight [Pascal] facing an excellent light heavyweight [Dawson] and I just can’t see Pascal having the size to compete in this fight. It will be interesting to talk about the fight, but the actual fight will likely be a huge letdown.
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