By Al Francis: A fight aptly billed as “Firepower” sees the consensus pound for pound best boxer in the world Manny Pacquiao challenge Miguel Cotto for the Puerto Rican’s WBO welterweight strap. Pacquiao has been installed by the bookmakers as a very solid favorite to win the much anticipated dual but on this occasion I feel they’ve got it terribly wrong.

It’s easy to see why the Filipino whirlwind is such a strong favorite considering his last three fights have been punch perfect but it’s quite possible that this form line flatters Pacquiao a little.

In Miguel Cotto he faces a bigger, heavier, stronger opponent and if Juan Manuel Marquez and Erik Morales are capable of snapping Pacquiao’s head back, then Cotto can go one better.

Coming out of a 3 fight trilogy with Mexican legend Erik Morales at 130 lbs and a controversial win over Marquez, Pacquiao stepped up in weight to challenge then WBC lightweight champion David Diaz, scoring a chilling knockout in 9 one sided rounds to claim his fifth ‘world title’ in as many weights. This was the first of Pacquiao’s 3 punch perfect performances. Diaz, though a perfectly capable fighter was not considered to be an outstanding champion and it just wasn’t in the script for him to really extend Manny as the fight showed. Next up came the Oscar fight. We all know what happened there and it’s no secret that De La Hoya had made an incredibly miscalculated gamble on his weight, coming into the fight severely dehydrated which no doubt contributed heavily to the California native’s weak performance. This fight most certainly flatters Pacquiao but he did what he had to do and looked sensational in the process. Then came perhaps Pacquiao’s most devastating performance to date, the shockingly brutal knockout of 140 lb kingpin Ricky Hatton. With rumors of Hatton getting beat up by sparring partners in preparation for the fight as well as the hitman’s own admission of doubts going into the fight, this result may also flatter the pride of the Philippines. The win secured Manny’s sixth world title in as many weights and now he’s going for his seventh against Cotto.

In stark contrast to Pacquiao, Cotto’s last 3 fights have been anything but punch perfect. First there was the humbling defeat at the hands of Antonio Margarito, followed by an easy night’s work against overmatched Brit Michael Jennings, then a hard fought decision win over tough Ghanaian Joshua Clottey. The Margarito and Clottey fights in particular have left many pundits with the feeling that Cotto is vulnerable and could be there for the taking but with the right game plan and with tunnel vision focus he can win the big one on November 14th.

What Cotto must do first and foremost is jab. Double jab. Triple jab. He should not put too much power behind his jab or over extend because that will only lead to crisp counters coming back from Pacquiao. Cotto needs to peck his jab repeatedly, offsetting his man’s rhythm and setting up his own attacks as they are presented. He can back Pacquiao up by doing this and when he has Manny positioned near the ropes he must let go to the body with hard combination punching before engaging in a clinch. When the fighters are clinching Cotto needs to impose his physical strength over Pacquiao, leaning on him and walking him around the ring, winning the mental game is vital early on. Another thing Cotto must look at in training is Pacquiao’s tendency to leave himself off balance when throwing his lead left hand, he over extends the shot so Cotto has to be ready to counter. The right counter punch can put Manny down and the opening for the shot will most certainly be there so Cotto must not hesitate.

For me the main thing going against Cotto in this fight isn’t Pacquiao’s speed, power or relentless pressure, it’s the demons he carries into the ring with him. His head must be clear if is to have any chance of winning and he must be able to adapt while in the ring, something he is capable of doing as he proved in the Shane Mosley fight. He will be caught fast and hard in the early stages of the fight so he must not allow this to take him out of his game or develop any doubt in his mind, if it does then Manny will be looking at another easy win.

Lets rewind a little, when Pacquiao first signed to fight Oscar De La Hoya he was installed as a huge betting underdog and the fight was being branded a mismatch from all quarters of the boxing fraternity, imagine for a moment if he signed to fight Cotto instead. Cotto would have been a bigger favorite than De La Hoya was, the prospect of the match taking place at that time would have been utterly laughable and it would have been described as one of the biggest mismatches in boxing history.

As boxing fans are we really that forgetful? Old adages such as a fighter being “only as good as their last fight” serve us well in ranking fighters and if true, would certainly put things in Pacquiao’s favor, but how true can this really be? Has our memories pre-Diaz been completely wiped away by what Manny has done since?

Boxing fans are in for a real treat come November, it’s hard to envisage this fight being anything other than a toe to toe war of attrition. Pacquiao’s speed will trouble Cotto early on and may well stun him, but providing Cotto keeps a clear head and follows the game plan I see his brute strength and punching power to be far more troubling for Pacquiao as the fight progresses. It will be a tall order come November 14th but if Cotto can do all of the above I’m confident that he can come out of this fight a winner, and not only that, a knockout winner.