By Giancarlo Malinconico: Bettingzone.co.uk has listed Floyd “Money” Mayweather as a 4/9 or slightly more than 2-to-1 favorite over Manny Pacquiao if a fight were to emerge between the two superstars. Floyd’s dominating performance over Juan Manuel Marquez is the most likely factor in skewing the odds in his favor. If Pacquiao, however, is successful and impressive against Miguel Cotto you can expect the odds to tighten up a bit. But it’s clear: Mayweather will be close to a 2-to-1 favorite against the Pac man.

If a Mayweather/Pacquiao were to occur, you can bet Floyd will not weigh in less than the 145 pounds that Miguel Cotto was required to weigh. Floyd, moreover, may even demand the fight be at the full welterweight limit. Either way, “Money” would be the bigger man. And after seeing the size difference in the Marquez match, the oddsmakers are taking it into account. And plus many are deducing that since Mayweather completely outclassed Marquez, and Marquez gave Pacquiao all he could handle, Floyd is therefore the logical choice to defeat Manny. But I say not so fast. I am very skeptical about common-opponent arguments in assessing fights. I believe in the old cliché, “styles make fights.”

In my opinion, “Money” and the Pac man is a 50/50 fight. Pacquiao is not the same fighter who fought Marquez at 126 and 130 pounds. If you were to study film, it’s obvious: Pacquiao has upgraded his footwork and defense since moving up to a 135 pounds. Pacquiao doesn’t get hit as easily or as much anymore, and has the hand speed and work rate to give Floyd fits.

Perhaps I’m selling Miguel Cotto short; he is a great fighter. But I think that Bob Arum is more of an obstacle than Cotto is in prohibiting a Mayweather/Pacquiao mega fight in 2010. If the Pac man is successful against Cotto, I hope we don’t get another Hopkins/Roy Jones situation in which a bout never develops because of a continual purse-split dispute.

Since Mayweather/Marquez did over a million buys, Floyd has boosted his negotiating advantage. We will have to wait and see how Pacquio/Cotto does. But regardless, Mayweather/Pacquiao will sell well, and both will make a bundle. I say 50/50, and let’s put all egos aside.

Everywhere I go whenever boxing is the topic of conversation, it’s the same question every time: When are Pacquiao and Mayweather fighting?