By William Mackay: I hate really hate to say this but I think Juan Manuel Marquez has only one chance of beating Floyd Mayweather Jr. this Saturday night and that’s by knocking Mayweather out. I wish it wasn’t this way, but I really think Marquez has to knock him out, because Marquez probably won’t be given a decision unless he knocks Mayweather down multiple times in the fight.
Even then, I can see Mayweather still winning the bout. This is boxing and Mayweather, whether people want to recognize this or not, is the bigger star. It’s about putting backsides in seats and selling pay-per-view fights and Marquez just doesn’t have the star appeal to make that happen. At 36, his days are numbered, so I don’t see any sudden transformation occurring in Marquez’s career in that department.
I don’t even think that Marquez is a huge star in Mexico. During last Saturday’s HBO Mayweather-Marquez 24/7 episode 3, when Marquez was introduced to a huge Mexican crowd in a soccer stadium, I could barely hear any applause for Marquez. That’s not good. Had this been someone like Julio Cesar Chavez in his prime, the fans would have likely been going wild. Mayweather, on the other hand, is the star attraction and boxing isn’t going to let him lose unless Marquez beats him every which way but Tuesday on September 19th.
Marquez, hopefully, knows this and is planning on trying to knock Mayweather out, because he’s going to lose the fight otherwise. Besides that, beating Mayweather by decision is almost impossible to do anyway. Mayweather is a pure boxer and will be jabbing, moving and blocking shots all night long.
Mayweather has a very hard style to beat by decision. Beating Mayweather by knockout seems like a long shot, I know, but that really is about the only chance that Marquez has in this fight. He’s going to have to jump on Mayweather early, get him against the ropes and make him defend the whole time.
Mayweather can only do so many shoulder rolls before the punches start getting though his guard and landing. Ricky Hatton found success in the first six rounds against Mayweather in their bout in December 2007. Hatton might have done better had the referee not stopped him from working on the inside. I don’t see that as being a problem for Marquez on Saturday, because he’s not an inside fighter like Hatton and the same referee won’t be used for this fight.
However, Mayweather will be landing a lot of short punches while in close with Marquez and getting the better of him. The only way Marquez can really win is if he just goes for broke and winds up with every shot while he has the opportunity. Mayweather will likely run, jab and clinch a lot and act as the spoiler.
When he sees that Marquez is trying to take his head off, Mayweather will go into defense mode and look to keep from getting hit in the head. It will be hard to beat Mayweather when he starts fighting like that, in particular if Mayweather starts running.
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