By David Lahr: Looking for another big payday, undefeated WBO/WBC middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik (34-0, 30 KOs) will be fighting former middleweight champion Bernard Hopkins (48-5, 32 KOs) on October 18th at Atlantic City, in New Jersey. Having recently defended his title with an impressive 3rd round stoppage of Gary Lockett in June, Pavlik is now ready for some really big money against the 43 year-old Hopkins.

While there are some grumbling among boxing fans about the choice of Pavlik’s opponent, to be sure there isn’t any other top middleweights in the division that can bring in the kind of money that Hopkins can at this point. However, with that said, this is a fight that has mismatch written all over it. Hopkins hasn’t looked impressive in a fight since defeating Antonio Tarver two years ago in 2006, and seems to be declining in his work rate and ability to fight as hard as he used to. With two losses against Jermain Taylor in 2005, a clinch-plagued victory over Winky Wright in July 2007, and then a 12-round split decision loss to Joe Calzaghe in April, (also a fight in which Hopkins clinched often) it seems that Hopkins’ career is on the downward direction.

As I look at what each fighter brings to the table for their upcoming bout, I don’t see really anything that I can put in Hopkins’ favor other than experience. Power, size, work rate, youth, aggressiveness and stamina all lay on the side of Pavlik. Hopkins, at times, can fight hard, can punch well and can pressure to a degree, but he can no longer put forth a sustained effort in the ring without slowing down and reverting to clinch.

Although some people say the clinch is down merely to slow down his opponents, but I think it serves another purpose as well – that being to slow the fight down so that the age-depleted Hopkins can get additional breaks, allowing him to recover. This has worked well against fighters with a slower pace and with a less aggressive style of fighting, like Calzaghe, Wright and Taylor, but I’m not so sure that it will be effective against Pavlik, who never stops coming and doesn’t give his opponents much of a chance to rest.

In fights with Fulgencio Zuniga, Jose Luis Zertuche, Edison Miranda, Taylor and Lockett, Pavlik literally forced each of them to fight for their lives as he walked them down, getting them up against the ropes where they had no way of escape. Once on the ropes, he stayed at a comfortable distance, landing huge bombs with each hand and hurting them. Hopkins, for his part, hasn’t had to deal with a fighter like this in his career, with the closest thing that could come anywhere near him being Howard Eastman, Felix Trinidad, Glen Johnson, Simon Brown and Antwun Echols.

All good fighters, I’ll admit, but none anywhere near the class of Pavlik when it comes to power shots and pressure. In most of those cases, Hopkins fought them earlier in his career, in his prime. Against Pavlik, you want to admit it or not, Hopkins isn’t in his prime anymore, and is meeting his toughest opponent of his career at the worst possible time.

Even a prime Roy Jones Jr., who beat Hopkins by a narrow 12-round decision in 1993, wouldn’t have likely been able to stand up to the tremendous pressure and power that Pavlik brings to the ring. This is why I see this as a really bad bout for Hopkins, who regardless of how often he clinches in the fight, he’s going to get his bell rung more than a few times in the fight.