By Donald Crisp: The time-tested adage “styles make fights” is the first line of defense to this entire article. The purpose of this article is not to defy that adage. Instead, the purpose is to attempt to pave a road, however small that road may be, that leads to the very real possibility that WBA/WBC junior middleweight champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (42-0-1, 30 KO’s) may prove to be a tough, if not the toughest, opponent for Floyd Mayweather Jr. (44-0, 26 KO’s).
Many have already boarded this long-departed train. Yet some persist in their thoughts that Canelo is simply “another one” that Mayweather will steamroll. Bear with me: my method in this article is unorthodox, I confess, but if nothing else, it gives you something to think about.
This article will analyze three groups of fights: (1) Mayweather vs. Mosley and Mosley vs. Canelo; (2) Mayweather vs. Cotto; Cotto vs. Trout; and Trout vs. Canelo; and (3) Mayweather vs. Ortiz; Ortiz vs. Lopez; and Lopez vs. Canelo.
MAYWEATHER – MOSLEY – CANELO
The only common opponent that Mayweather and Canelo share is sure-to-be hall of famer, Shane Mosley. Mosley had a great first two rounds vs. Mayweather back in May of 2010 when the two boxing superstars met. Round 2 of that match was the closest that we have seen Mayweather come to touching the canvas in recent memory. After that, Mosley fizzled and Mayweather put on a boxing clinic. The match was scored 119-109, 119-109, and 118-110 for Mayweather.
Two years later, in May of 2012, Mosley faced off with Canelo. Canelo dominated every single round of the fight, with the exception of round 1, which saw Mosley pushing the action against a conservative Canelo who, in my mind, was feeling out the old veteran. The post-fight headlines all commented on how Canelo connected at an alarming rate of 52% (348/673), resulting in the most amount of punches ever landed on Mosley. Mosley, on the other hand, landed a meager 25% (183/745) of his punches. This match was also scored 119-109, 119-109, and 118-110, this time for Canelo.
A 34 yr old Mayweather lost two rounds to Mosley in a decisive manner. He was severely rattled in round 2 by a series of spurts at the hands of Mosley, who came ever-so-close to knocking Mayweather down.
19 yr old Canelo dominated Mosley, who almost knocked out Mayweather. He battered and out boxed the old veteran in a decisive manner.
MAYWEATHER – COTTO – TROUT – CANELO
Mayweather’s toughest opponent, according to him, has been Miguel Cotto. Sure, some out there, including me, would say Castillo or De La Hoya were tougher fights for Mayweather. Incidentally, some seem to think that avenging a loss, as Mayweather did with Castillo, obliterates the loss. That is not the way it works. Mayweather lost to Castillo; the fact that he came back and beat him in the rematch does not mean he did not lose the first fight. He lost the first fight and won the second, the judge’s scorecard on the first fight notwithstanding. But I digress.
So the logic goes a little something like this: Mayweather had a tough fight with Cotto; Cotto lost decisively to Trout; Trout lost decisively to Canelo. Before you punch your computer screen in outrage at my logic, keep in mind that I disclaimed at the outset of this article that the article was a bit unorthodox in its method; but there is definitely a method to all this madness.
The Trout-Cotto fight was relatively one-sided, as evidenced by the scorecards: 119-109; 119-109; and 117-111. Despite Cotto landing some of his best shots throughout the middle rounds, Trout was never really rattled or otherwise in danger. Trout ended Cotto’s perfect streak at the Madison Square Garden in dominant fashion and without controversy.
The Trout-Canelo fight brought Trout his first knockdown within seconds of the start of the 7th round. Canelo connected a powerful straight right hand that was set up by a left jab, hitting Trout right in the throat area. Trout wobbled awkwardly for a few seconds, ultimately finding repose in the canvass. Some rounds were relatively close. There is certainly some controversy as to the wide margin in the scorecards. However, the final result – a robust win for Canelo – was justified by the action in the ring.
That leaves us with this to consider in conjunction with Canelo’s defeat of Mosley: Canelo knocked down Trout and beat him decisively; Trout beat Cotto decisively; Cotto gave Mayweather a spirited and difficult fight. That is something to think about.
MAYWEATHER – ORTIZ – LOPEZ – CANELO
Lastly, we look at Mayweather vs. Ortiz, Ortiz vs. Lopez, and Lopez vs. Canelo. The part in this sequence that is most telling, in my mind, is the way with which Canelo disposed of poor Josesito Lopez. It was 100% annihilation.
Though rounds 1-3 of the Mayweather-Ortiz fight were rightfully Mayweather rounds. Ortiz was able to find success in round 4 when he connected some powerful shots, forcing Mayweather into a corner. The rest: head-butt, sucker punch, and knockout; is history.
But as I said above, the analysis of this series of fights is more telling for Canelo than for Mayweather. Ortiz got his jaw broken by Josesito Lopez, a huge underdog who traded punches with Ortiz, ultimately forcing Ortiz to quit, catapulting Josesito Lopez into the limelight and earning him a spot against Canelo. Unfortunately for Lopez, the limelight cost him a robust butt-beating that lasted an excruciating 5 rounds. It was a difficult fight to watch because I couldn’t help but feel bad for Josesito. Poor kid was trying his absolute best but it was painfully clear that his best simply did not measure up. What Canelo did to Josesito in 5 very long rounds is impressive when you consider what Josesito did to Ortiz.
CONCLUSION
This article does not prove anything. It is not intended to prove anything. It is simply an illustration, using circumstantial evidence, showing that Canelo is a legitimate foe that Mayweather should not take lightly. There is a group of people who understand that this is going to be an interesting fight, hype aside, because of the fighters and their respective skill-set. This article is not for you.
This article is for those who walk around with blinders believing that Mayweather is going to steamroll past Canelo. That is, of course, certainly a possibility. But there is a big difference between “possibility” and “probability.” In other words, just because something is possible, does not mean that it is probable. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the point: It is highly improbable that Mayweather is going to walk into the MGM on September 14th and steamroll past Canelo. The evidence simply does NOT support that conclusion.
Fasten your seatbelts and get ready for an all-out war.
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