Fight day is almost upon us between two confident boxers, Ryan Garcia and Devin Haney. This is an important fight for both fighters for different reasons. Both have something the other wants, Ryan Garcia has the fame and the money. Devin Haney has his 0 in the loss column.
On paper this fight seems open and shut, the winner isn’t in doubt but as the fight nears the betting odds will become a lot closer. The saying goes, “Fights are won in the ring.” This is not necessarily true and greatly simplifies where fights are actually won at, on paper, during training and in the fighter’s heads.
Ryan Garcia is a wonderful talent who knows it. That is his biggest downfall. He has been fighting with his promoter and often says inflammatory things, and after receiving a couple of early paydays, he is the top earner for the 135. lb -140 .lb weight class.
Unfortunately, his training and focus have also shown it. The Ryan Garcia who fought Gervonta “Tank” Davis was different than the one who fought Romero Duno, different than the one who fought Luke Campbell. The Ryan Garcia, who fought Davis, was fat and undisciplined. He spent most of his training on fat camp and came in weight-drained. Although he made the limit, the same Ryan Garcia in his next fight couldn’t even make 140 for his battle against Oscar Duarte. He fought like trash and was bailed out by his power.
Ryan Garcia has two roads in front of him. One path leads to him getting serious about his training, keeping his body in shape, and treating boxing as an actual career. That Ryan Garcia will learn that the older you get, your boxing will be more about your skill instead of your natural athletic ability.
Garcia isn’t going to be sparking people out the way he did at 135 pounds. At 154 he will find it tough and will legitimately need to know his trade. There will be younger fighters there that can get away doing what Ryan Garcia himself did earlier in his career, losing a lot of weight for a fight and being able to pack it back on without a loss in power or speed. As is with his current path, Ryan Garcia does not seem to be locked in.
The other path is one that many well-known boxers have tread, most notably Adrien “The Problem” Broner. That is when you have big initial success, become a multi-millionaire early, and then stop focusing on your craft.
Ryan could be the type of boxer who takes dumb losses early because he lets himself get too fat and relies on his natural ability to win fights. He will lose some and then take an extended break from boxing. As is, he is only taking two fights a year. Two fights are what established, and older fighters like Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, Anthony Joshua, and the like can get by on.
Garcia should be fighting three to four times a year. He should have been the one to take the lucrative fight with Rolando “Rolly” Romero instead of Isaac “Pitbull” Cruz for a title. If he is locked in, he could win many fights on paper by matching himself with favorable opponents like Romero would have been.
He could win fights in training, knowing that he was focused enough that it doesn’t matter what the other guy brings. That Ryan Garcia wouldn’t have been caught with a gut punch and quit. Ryan Garcia was in pain, however he knew that he trained like crap and then tried to shift the blame to his promoters instead of just saying that he wasn’t ready. As many flaws as Ryan has, Devin Haney could be worse.
Devin Haney has next world knowledge of a boxing ring. His IQ is high, he has great footwork, and he knows where to place his punches. What Devin Haney doesn’t have is popularity or exceptional physical attributes. Haney has been a weight bully for most of his career. Most boxers are weight bullies so this isn’t anything new. You can only be a weight bully in the first half of your career unless you are meticulous in keeping your weight down and what you put in your body. Eventually, Haney will be forced to move up to 154, where I suspect that he will have difficulty. Haney’s size has let him compete at the highest level, but let’s be real, he isn’t a world-beater.
Haney has only two knockouts in his last eleven fights. Haney doesn’t have power. Haney doesn’t have blistering hand speed to back people off of him. Haney isn’t flashy or fancy inside of the ring. He was trained by a professional and tries to handle himself as such while he is in the ring. Unfortunately for him, no one wants to see him and it will catch up to him eventually. Haney is getting larger which means soon he will be in the ring with people like Ryan Garcia. People that are his size, that are faster, and that are stronger. Ryan Garcia has the ability to beat Devin Haney. He is a live dog in this fight regardless of how Haney has prepared. If Haney is caught the way Jorge Linares caught him by Ryan Garcia, Haney is going down. Haney has to stay locked in to beat his opponents, and unfortunately, that is the reason that he will become avoided by the top.
Many people believe boxers avoid each other because they are scared to lose. They are scared to lose….their fans. No boxer wants to be involved in whatever Haney and Prograis did in the ring. That did nothing to boost Haney’s stock and let’s get real, Garcia is the draw. Garcia could have fought anyone and made good money. He could have fought Prograis, he could fight Romero, he could fight Cruz. All would take the fight because he is a money fighter. Garcia may not be that way for long with his work ethic, but for now, he is. Haney isn’t a money fighter. He is going to have to take on other no-money fighters like current champion Subriel Matias. Matias is exciting in the ring but doesn’t have a big following and doesn’t sell PPV tickets. Haney wants to get out of that club but that is where he will stay. Unless he suddenly adopts a more fan-friendly style or comes across some power, he will stay that way. Nothing his father, nothing he says, nothing his team says will make that change. Having a 0 in the loss column will not make that happen. Devin Haney is the champ and he is taking the smaller purse for the right to face Garcia. Haney is going to be untouchable after this fight.
If Haney wins, then the story will be that he either ran or beat a fat Ryan Garcia. If he wins, this will be his largest payday. He will start to want more of these paydays but will not find many fights. Promoters aren’t going to keep him for long, his fights will lose more than they bring in to make it worth it. I suspect that Haney will have to take many high-risk, low-reward fights for the rest of his career.
What I also suspect is that Haney will stay locked in, for the rest of his career. He will not gain much recognition from other fighters because of his style. Even after beating Garcia, he definitely will not get the rub he is looking for. If Haney loses, then he has to work himself back up the food chain. Haney is someone that can definitely do it, I wouldn’t be surprised if he had another title within three years. However, Haney will have to accept that he isn’t a draw and work himself back up with small money fights. He wouldn’t even be making a million a fight and will most likely fight on non-PPV streaming services just to keep his name out there or end up being the first or second fight on a main card. If Garcia wins, then things get interesting.
If Garcia wins, he should be thankful. His star would shoot through the roof since he would have beaten a legitimate threat. He could easily make another thirty million like his fight with Tank Davis by taking on an old Terence Crawford. Win or lose that fight, thirty million is thirty million and that fight sells itself. Crawford would jump into it since he is looking to make good money on the way out. Garcia could afford to only take big fights and leave low-reward fights alone. Garcia could be the boxer that only fights for ten million or more and other boxers will dance to his tune. Tank Davis would go up in weight for a fight. Shakur Stevenson would give his right arm for that fight. Isaac Cruz would jump through whatever hoop for the fight. Ryan Garcia would be in control, he would be everything Haney wishes he were. This is wishful thinking, does he have the skill and can he use it, no.
This article started off by saying fights can be won on paper. On paper, Ryan Garcia doesn’t take training seriously. On paper, he is fat with little work ethic. He can be walked down and tired out due to his low work ethic. This article said that fights are won during training. Coming in three pounds overweight means that he hasn’t been training. You can tell from his once rock-solid body that the extra weight wasn’t a ploy or some tactic to beat Haney. That weight was the result of too many In-N-Out burgers out there in California. He was hurt to the body in previous sparring matches and in an actual fight. Garcia did nothing to muscle his body up and it seems softer than it ever has been. This article also said that fights are won mentally. Garcia has already lost this fight. He needs to go right at Haney and stay on him for twelve rounds. He is going to be too tired to do that after four or five rounds. He is going to gas out and then give up. He is going to be thinking about all the burgers he should have put down and then feel sorry for himself like he did with Gervonta Davis.
To win this fight, all Haney has to do is stick around to the fifth round. If he could win one of the rounds before the bell sounds for the sixth, expect scores of 116-112 across the board. For Ryan to win the fight, Haney would have to do something stupid like trying to knock him out or throwing flashy combinations. Ryan will try to catch Haney early and if he can, he will stay on him. At any big sign of trouble the fight could be stopped before Haney can get his faculties back. This knockout will have to occur prior to the eighth round. I don’t think Haney is that reckless or Garcia that dedicated.
