By Sean Jones: Trainer Abel Sanchez says he thinks Jermell Charlo will mentally quit against undisputed super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez on September 30th, stop trying to win and just look to survive to last the twelve round distance.
The former coach Sanchez has been wrong before in his predictions, and there’s a good chance he’ll be off with this pick as well.
Some would argue that Abel is partial towards Canelo because he went up against him a couple of times, so he’s naturally pulling for the Mexican star for old-time’s sake.
Abel thinks Canelo (59-2-2, 39 KOs) will batter the challenger Jermell (35-1-1, 19 KOs) and slowly beat him up, taking the fight out of him. He notes that Brian Castano gave Charlo, 33, problems, and he feels that if that guy could do it, Canelo will too.
Sanchez is well familiar with Canelo from his two fights against Gennadiy Golovkin, and he thinks the Mexican star is still functioning at full capacity despite recent sluggish performances against John Ryder, GGG & Dmitry Bivol.
If it was just one bad performance from Canelo, you could overlook it as maybe an off night or a case of a bad style match-up for him, but it’s three consecutive contests dating back since early last year.
Even against the shot-to-pieces 41-year-old Golovkin and the slow British fighter Ryder, Canelo struggled and labored to pick up wins. Canelo almost lost to Golovkin last September and surely would have if not for a slow start by GGG.
Canelo more well-rounded fighter
“He doesn’t beat Canelo. Coming up? The other guy [Canelo] was a 140-pounder, to begin with. He was a 147-lb champion,” said Abel Sanchez to Fight Hub TV about his belief that Canelo Alvarez will beat Jermell Charlo on September 30th.
“Most of his [Canelo] fights were at 147 & 154. I think Canelo is a more well-rounded fighter at that level. I didn’t like the way Charlo looked like against the Argentinian [Brian] Castano.
“The pressure that Castano will put on him. Canelo will be a different fight. Canelo has earned where he’s at.
“I think Canelo decision because Charlo is a good fighter. Charlo, to me, is the type of fighter that will step up to the competition,” said Sanchez.
Canelo has certainly accomplished a lot during his career than Jermell, but he’s deteriorated drastically since capturing the undisputed championship in 2021.
That fight against Caleb Plant was a more taxing one on Canelo than many boxing fans realize, as the Mexican star hasn’t looked the same since.
Plant got his ounce of flesh in that fight, leaving Canelo the empty shell that we’ve seen in all his fights ever since.
We’ve seen a core collapse with Canelo, like a giant star that has gone supernova; the Mexican star has exhausted his energy and will be highly vulnerable from this point against the lions like Jermell, David Benavidez & David Morrell Jr.
“He may not have thought a lot about the Argentinian, so he may not have stepped up to the competition, but I think he’ll step up. He’ll give Canelo a hard time early, but I think Canelo finally catches up to him and maybe puts him down one time, but I think he wins a 116-112 decision somewhere around there.
“I just think Charlo is a good champion,” said Sanchez when asked if he thinks it’ll be fairly close because of the way Canelo looked in his last fight against John Ryder last May.
The only real question is will the judges give it to Jermell if he takes Canelo to school on September 30th, or will they rob him like some believe they came close to doing in the Mexican star’s fight with Dmitry Bivol.
Jermell will mentally quit
“Maybe not as busy enough for me, but I think he’s demonstrated he’s a good champion,” said Sanchez. “We were just talking about the Argentinian. Charlo didn’t think much of the Argentinian. Maybe mentally, he didn’t prepare as well as he should have prepared [for the first fight].”
With the way Sanchez is talking, it sounds like he didn’t watch the second Charlo-Castano fight and is just going on information from their first contest. The rematch was a mismatch, with Jermell destroying Castano.
“Maybe he could have been the same thing with Canelo against Ryder,” said Sanchez. “Ryder was someone that Canelo was supposed to blow out with one punch. Everyone was saying. So maybe that gets in their mind, and that doesn’t happen, and he doesn’t look as good as he looked.”
Canelo didn’t overlook Ryder. He tried as hard as he could to stop the British fighter, but he was too deteriorated to do anything with him.
“He [Canelo] knows in his mind, and Eddie’s [Reynoso] mind, that Charlo is a challenge. So, we’re punishing him for looking bad?” said Sanchez when told that Caanelo dropped Ryder twice, one every round, and beat him up.
“The thing about Canelo is he’s not a devastating puncher, but he’s a concussive puncher. He just hits you, hits you, and hits you. He’s very busy. He lands his punches. He’s not going to knock you out with one shot like Inoue, but he’s going to beat the heck out of you.
“He’s going to beat you up. Sometimes it’s better to knock you out than to get beat up like that. I think he beats on Charlo, and I’m not going to say that Charlo quits, but quits in his mind. He stops trying to win and just survives, but I think he gives him a tough fight,” said Sanchez.
164 is too heavy for Charlo
“True,” said Sanchez about Jermell needing to avoid an in close fight with Canelo. “If the fight goes on, and Canelo is beating on him, and it doesn’t matter where he’s hitting him and beating on him, that’ll slow him down.
“Like I said. In the first part of the fight will be difficult because he [Jermell] is the quicker guy. Also too, it will depend on what weight he will come into the fight too.
“Derrick [James] is his coach; Derrick knows him best,” said Abel when told that Jermell Charlo’s trainer wants him to come in at 164 for the fight with Canelo. “If he fought at 154, how can 10 lbs more make you quick & agile?”
It doesn’t make sense for Jermell to come into the fight with Canelo like he’s still fighting at 154 because he’s going to need at least some extra size for this fight.
“Canelo fought at 160. Does that mean at 168, he’s not going to be quick & agile? If that’s what Derrick thinks is the best weight for his fighter, then that’s what it should be,” said Sanchez.
“Hopefully, it won’t weigh him [Charlo] down too much because if he weighs 164 for the weigh-in, how much is he going to weight for the fight?
“Not necessarily. He is not going to come into camp at 164. Usually, they’re 20 to 25 lbs above the weight, and it depends on how he loses it. But if he gets down to 164, by fight night, he’s 172, 173. Is that going to be too heavy for him? Whereas if he fought at 154, I don’t think he’d again more than ten or 12 lbs by fight night.
“Sometimes the quickness and the fast hands are just as effective as the power, the slower power. If he’s able to catch him early with some decent shots, the quick shots, the one-twos with the speed, there’s no doubt in my mind that he could hurt him because speed kills sometimes.
“But if the fight goes on and Canelo’s defense is on point, and he doesn’t get caught with shots early, maybe it’ll be a different fight towards the end,” said Sanchez.
Jermell will likely be in the low 170s for the fight on September 30th, which is exactly where Canelo will be. It’s the perfect weight for Jermell to give Canelo massive problems.
