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Spence vs. Garcia – analysis & prediction

Image: Spence vs. Garcia - analysis & prediction

By Allan Fox: Errol ‘The Truth, ‘ Spence is in the position of needing to prove himself in the eyes of countless doubters in his fight tonight against the dangerous puncher Danny ‘Swift’ Garcia on Fox Sports pay-per-view.

(Photo credit: Ryan Hafey/Premier Boxing Champions)

The 2012 U.S Olympian Spence needs to show the world that he’s still the same fighter he once was.

The southpaw Spence (26-0, 21 KOs) was injured in a car crash last year could have ruined his career, but somehow escaped without life-threatening injuries.

Spence-Garcia will be fighting in front of boxing fans at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The fans are expected to be rooting for the Texas native Spence, who lives in Desoto, Texas.

Image: Spence vs. Garcia - analysis & prediction

Is Spence still the same fighter?

After tonight, we’re going to know if Spence is still #1 at 147 or if he’s slipped a couple of notches. A knockout defeat for Spence against Danny would mean that he’s lost something from his car accident, and he might not be able to recapture his previous form.

For the people that want to watch IBF/WBC welterweight champion Spence defend against Garcia (36-2, 21 KOs) from the comforts of their homes, they can order it on Fox Sports pay-per-view for $74.99.

While Garcia only has a KO percent of 55.26%, he’s a formidable puncher, and he may have more power than anyone in the 147-lb division.

Perhaps the reason why Danny doesn’t have more knockouts on his resume is typically a low work-rate. Garcia is a counter puncher who waits for his opponents to get their shots off before he looks to land a sneaky punch.

“I’m expecting Errol to control the range, and to start the fight with his jab more than stepping to Danny Garcia with a double jab and straight left,” said Shawn Porter. “I’m expecting him [Spence] to be a little bit more safer, and a little bit more conservative to start the fight with a jab.

“On the other hand, I know what I want Danny to do, but I know what Danny does. I want Danny to be aggressive coming out of the blocks, and I don’t mean on him like I’m on many guys.

“I mean aggressive with your head movement, aggressive with feints, and aggressive with your jab. Use the jab to set-up some things, and use your jab to set up your counters. I don’t think that’ something that he [Danny Garcia] does,” said Porter.

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Danny can hurt Errol

The 32-year-old Danny might not be capable of changing his game to be on the front go come after Spence, seeing that he’s spent his entire career being a reactive type of fighter. One of the rare fights for Danny in which he was aggressive was against little Rod Salka in 2014.

Garcia knocked Salka out badly in the second round. But Salka was a fighter that had fought at super featherweight, and he didn’t possess the size or the power to compete against Garcia.

“What I expect is for him to come into the ring and look at Errol Spence Jr, and figure out where my timing is and how I can land the big hook or the big counter right hand,” said Porter.

“I think he’s got power,” Porter said of Garcia. “I don’t remember feeling his power where we’ve seen from him in the past where he really clocks some guys, but I do think he’s got power, and I do think if he can touch Errol clean, he may affect Errol.

“But saying all that, I don’t think Danny is going to start fast, and I think that’s going to be a detriment to the fight for him. I do think the fight is going to be exciting because I do think Errol is going to get comfortable.

“And once he gets comfortable, he’s going to start behaving like he usually does in terms of being more aggressive with the combinations to the head and body. Then I think we’re going to have a good fight,” said Porter.

Porter picking Spence to beat Garcia

Garcia has got more than enough power not only to hurt Spence but also to take him out. But for Garcia to knock out Spence, he’s going to need to be aggressive and not slip into his counter puncher mode.

Image: Spence vs. Garcia - analysis & prediction

“I do think it’s going to be a great fight, and I think it’s a fight that Errol Spence is going to win. And I think it’s going to be a decision, but I don’t think it’s going to be a close decision,” said Porter.

“I don’t think the things that I want out of Danny to make it a great fight and to make it a close fight, I don’t think we’re going to get that,” said Porter.

Danny has never lost to anyone by a one-sided decision, so it isn’t easy to take Porter’s prediction of a one-sided victory for Errol seriously. If Spence gets in the trenches to slug with Garcia, he could pay a heavy price.

Although Spence fought aggressively against Porter last year, he wasn’t dealing with a big puncher. Garcia is too strong for Spence to risk using the same fighting style that he employed against Porter.

If anyone has a shot at scoring a knockout in this fight, it’s Danny. He punches harder, and he’s not coming off of a terrible car crash in which he was ejected from his automobile.


I’m picking Errol to win a hard-fought close 12 round decision, just like in his last contest against Porter. Garcia is too dangerous for Spence to go all out and try and score a stoppage like he’s done in the past.

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The car crash that Spence went through is going to make him cautious and a little bit afraid to mix it up with Danny the way he needs to for him to dominate.



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