By Charles Brun: Golden Boy Promotions has offered Callum Smith $5 million for him to face Canelo Alvarez on September 12 on DAZN.
According to The Athletic, the 30-year-old Smith (27-0, 19 KOs) has been given a smaller offer than the $6 million that he was asking for to face Alvarez (53-1-2, 36 KOs).
DAZN and Canelo both want the Callum Smith fight, and that makes perfect sense given the low-quality options that Golden Boy has been considering. The U.S streaming giant DAZN needs Canelo to face someone that the boxing public sees as having a fighting chance of beating the Mexican star.
If Golden Boy trots in an over-matched Jason Quigley or John Ryder, the U.S fans are going to avoid it like the plague, and choose not to reactivate their DAZN accounts.
Callum can make more money fighting Saunders
OK, it sounds good, Smith getting $5M, right? But when you subtract the starting taxes and expenses of paying for his team, Callum will likely get a lot less than that. Heck, it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s left with $2 million after all the deductions. $2 million is good money, yeah, but when you look at the $33 million Canelo will be getting for the fight, it puts in perspective, doesn’t it?
Whether Smith will agree to the $5 million offer is unclear. He can probably make more than that facing WBO super middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders in 2021 in Anfield in front of a large crowd, but that’ll depend on a vaccine being produced by next year.
If you’re Smith, you might be better off rejecting the offer and holding out for the $6 million. Canelo is going to want to fight Smith sooner or later because he’s the best of the DAZN 168-pound fighters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ju5vDQmbP4&t=12s
He’s not as talented as the Premier Boxing Champions super middleweight champs in Caleb Plant and David Benavidez in Brun’s estimation. Still, those are guys that Canelo will probably never face.
Benavidez and Plant are too good, and they fight on the other side of the street on a different platform. Canelo can’t or better yet; he WON’T fight those two PBC fighters. So that, in turn, strengthens Callum Smith’s hand.
Waiting will help Callum
Smith has more leverage than he thinks he does, and he’d be better off holding out for the entire $6 million. He probably should be asking for $7 million because he deserves that much. It doesn’t matter if Canelo doesn’t fight Smith now, he’s going to face him eventually, and he’ll get his asking price then.
What Smith has going for him is he’s got enough talent to hold onto his WBA 168lb title for another year, as long as he doesn’t defend it against Daniel Jacobs.
The World Boxing Association’s top 15 is filled with beatable opposition that Smith milk his title against those guys. Since Canelo isn’t showing much courage to take on talents like Benavidez, Plant, Artur Beterbiev, or Dmitry Bivol, Callum is in an excellent place to get even more than $6 million as long as he remains patient, and is willing to wait until 2021.
Smith needs to wait until large groups are allowed back into boxing events before he can get big money to fight Canelo. If Smith understands that delaying the fight with Canelo is similar to waiting on a stock to go up, he won’t mind putting the match off for a year or two.
Waiting until 2022 could see Smith make an additional $3-5 million for the Alvarez fight. Taking the battle now with Canelo, Smith might as well have a big bonfire in his front yard in which he’s burning as much as $5 million extra on top of the $5 million that he’s being offered now.
Jacobs got $12 million for the Canelo fight in 2019. Smith should be getting at least $10M if not $12 million, and he can probably get all of that as long as he waits.
Fans won’t be happy but oh well
Boxing fans will be upset at Smith if he turns down the $5 million, but they don’t understand how much money he’ll lose by taking the fight now. Look at it this way. If Smith gets beaten by Canelo, this will be the last time that he ever is offered a match against him, especially if he’s knocked out.
Most people believe Smith has no chance of beating Canelo, and they’re probably right. That’s why Smith needs to maximize the amount of dough he can get for the Alvarez fight, and the way to do that is to reject the $5 million offer and hold out for $10-12 million. If Smith lets the Canelo fight marinate until 2021 or 2022, he’ll be glad he did.
In the meantime, Smith’s promoter Eddie Hearn can match him against beatable opponents like WBO champ Billy Joe Saunders, Aidos Yerbossynuly, Lennox Allen, David Morrell, and David Lemieux. Smith beats those guys, and it would raise his stock more.
Callum and his management fail to realize that Canelo is in a weak position to negotiate. It may seem like Canelo holds all the cards, but he doesn’t. DAZN wants and needs Canelo to face a quality fighter, so there’s a lot of pressure being put on him.
Alvarez with pressure on him
Additionally, fans want Alvarez to fight someone good because his last match against the old-timer Sergey Kovalev was seen as a ripoff, and people were upset about the poor quality of action they saw. Also, Canelo wants to fight class – but not significant – opposition.
Smith is in a much better position than he realizes and doesn’t seem to be able to grasp that he’s being given a horrible lowball offer from Golden Boy. If Smith agrees to the $5 million, he’s crazy because he can probably make double that in 2021 or 2022 for the Canelo fight.
Alvarez has to make the fight with Callum because he’s already running out of guys that DAZN will want him to fight. If DAZN starts putting pressure on Canelo to take some real risks with his career by fighting Beterbiev, Bivol, Benevidez, and Plant, we could see Alvarez’s career implode. That’s why Canelo needs to delay that pressure from DAZN and the boxing public for a little longer by taking on Smith.