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Alex Saucedo vs. Sonny Fredrickson preview & prediction

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By Chris Williams: Light welterweights Alex Saucedo and Sonny Fredrickson will be fighting tonight in a 10 round fight on a Top Rank promoted card at the MGM Grand Conference Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Saucedo (29-1, 19 KOs) is still trying to come back from his 7th round TKO loss to WBO light-welterweight champion Maurice Hooker two years ago in a failed title shot at 140 in November 2018 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

The good news about tonight’s fight is it won’t be taking place in front of his home fans in Oklahoma City. So if things don’t go Saucedo’s way against Fredrickson, then at least it won’t be as bad for Alex like last time he got beat.

Saucedo blaming his loss on being weight drained

Although the 26-year-old Saucedo blames the loss on him being weight drained, it looked like it was more of a case of his defense just too porous for him to compete against Hooker.

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The excuses that Saucedo makes about WHY he lost to Hooker makes him look like a textbook case of a fighter in denial. You hate to see a fighter that won’t look at himself in the mirror and realize he messed up.

“I didn’t go into that fight ready. I felt like it was just 50 percent of myself in that fight because of the weight issues and everything that happened before camp,” Saucedo said ESPN.com. “I’m not going to learn anything from it. That was not Alex Saucedo that night.”

See what I mean about Saucedo being in denial. He just can’t face the truth about him not being good enough to beat Hooker. The thing is, if Saucedo fought Hooker today, he’d likely lost just as bad.

In Saucedo’s bounceback fight against little Rod Salka last November, he was still getting hit. Saucedo did what he had to do in stopping Saucedo in the first round, but this was a fodder opponent and not a world level guy.

It wasn’t a surprise to Chris Williams that Saucedo was schooled by Hooker because he’d been showing the same problems with his nonexistent defense since he turned pro in 2011.

Lenny Zappavigna exposed Saucedo’s flaws

The evidence was there that Saucedo wasn’t the complete package from his match against Lenny Zappavigna in June 2018. That was the fight directly before Saucedo fought Hooker.

Zappavigna landed a lot of shots on Saucedo and had him hurt. The fight was a blood bath, and Saucedo looked terrible despite winning a 7th round knockout. Top Rank should have held Saucedo back after that fight instead of allowing him to take on Hooker for the WBO belt.

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Those flaws were covered up due to the mediocre opposition that Saucedo had been fed his entire career. Saucedo’s offense has always been his defense, and it’s enabled him to get away with holes in his game that you could drive a truck through.

Saucedo would like to get another crack at a world title, but he’s got a long climb back to the top of the 140-lb rankings. His defeat to Hooker knocked him clean out of the 140-pound rankings, and he now has to start from scratch.

If Saucedo looks poor tonight and if he loses, Top Rank will need to sit down and think hard about whether it’s worth it to stick it out with him. It might be better for Top Rank to cut their losses and move on to look for other fighters that can win titles.

Fredrickson will need a miracle

Tonight, Saucedo should be safe with him facing a flawed fighter in 25-year-old Fredrickson (21-2, 14 KOs), who is coming off of a 10 round majority decision loss to Samuel Teah (17-3-1 7 KOs).

Fredrickson was also beaten by Shohjahon Ergashev in a third-round knockout defeat in 2018. As you can see, Fredrickson can fall apart at times

Prediction: 

Saucedo will win by an early knockout tonight without too many problems because he’s facing a weak puncher, who isn’t a world level guy. I see Saucedo stopping Fredrickson by the 5th round.

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Fredrickson is a step above Rod Salka in talent, and Saucedo should be able to barrel through him on sheer power alone. Even if Fredrickson lands a lot of shots tonight, Saucedo won’t have issues handling his power.

 


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