Gary Russell Jr. vs. Joseph Diaz Jr. – Preview and analysis

By Boxing News - 05/18/2018 - Comments

Image: Gary Russell Jr. vs. Joseph Diaz Jr. – Preview and analysis

By Dan Ambrose: WBC featherweight champion Gary Russell Jr. (28-1, 17 KOs) has his toughest fight ahead of him in years in defending against unbeaten number 1 contender Joseph Diaz Jr. (26-0, 13 KOs0 this Saturday night at the MGM National Harbor, in Oxon Hill, Maryland.

Russell Jr. and Diaz Jr. will be going at it this Saturday night on Showtime Championship Boxing at 10:05 p.m. ET/PT.

The 29-year-old Russell Jr. hasn’t had a fight like this since his 12 round majority decision loss to Vasyl Lomachenko in June 2014. That’s not to say that Russell Jr. will lose to Diaz Jr. on Saturday, because he could very well win this fight. The 25-year-old Diaz Jr. isn’t in the same league as Lomachenko, and he likely never will be. The 2012 U.S Olympian Diaz is a good fighter with excellent punching power and superb boxing skills, but he’s not about to school Russell Jr. the way that Lomachenko did four years ago.

“It’s difficult for me to know if ‘JoJo’ is my toughest opponent since Vasyl Lomachenko because I never train with a lot of worry about my opponents,” Russell Jr. said. ”I think that the biggest thing is preparing myself to the best of my ability and being the best that I can possibly be.”
Since Russell’s loss to Lomachenko in 2014, he’s beaten these fighters:

– Christopher Martin

– Jhonny Gonzalez

– Patrick Hyland

– Oscar Escandon

Those guys aren’t on the same level or even close to the same level that Diaz is fighting at right now. Jhonny Gonzalez is a good fighter, but he didn’t have the hand speed to compete with Russell Jr. Gonzalez’s habit of starting slowly wound up hurting him against Russell, who jumped on him right off the bat to get him out of there in the first four rounds in 2015.

Russell hasn’t been fighting a lot since his loss to Lomachenko four years ago. It’s been 4 years since Russell Jr. lost to Lomachenko, and he’s averaged just 1 fight per year during that time. That inactivity could wind up hurting Russell on Saturday night against the younger, far more active 25-year-old Diaz Jr. During the same 4-year time frame, Diaz has fought 12 times. Diaz has fought three times as often as Russell Jr. That doesn’t mean Diaz is going to win on Saturday, but it’s hard not to see that as an advantage for him over the 29-year-old Russell Jr.

Fighting only four times in four years is a strange move on Russell’s part, because he’s not been taking advantage of his prime. It almost seems like Russell Jr. doesn’t like fighting, because you would think that he should have been fighting a lot more than just one time per year, especially with him holding down the WBC 126lb title since 2015. If Russell Jr. had fought three times per year instead of just once, he’d have made a lot more money. Russell Jr. has a ton of talent, but he’s not using it by staying active and fighting the best. There is no excuse for Russell Jr. defending his WB title against the likes of Hyland and Escandon when he had guys like Diaz Jr., Scott Quigg and Carl Frampton in the division.

Russell Jr. says he wants to unify the featherweight division after the Diaz fight. We’ll see how serious he is if he beats Diaz Jr. Fighting only once a year isn’t going to get the job done. Russell Jr. will age out by the time he unifies the division if he’s even given the chance to.

“If we can get through this bout, I would love to get in the ring and unify with any of the other featherweight champions,” Russell Jr. said. ”The timing is perfect right now for any of these unification fights. If they still don’t want it, I’m willing to move up in weight to meet any of the guys who have a name. It’s time to make it happen.”

For Russell Jr. to unify the 126 lb. weight class, he’ll need to beat WBO champion Oscar Valdez, IBF belt holder Lee Selby and the winner of the Leo Santa Cruz vs. Abner Mares fight for the WBA belt. It’s unlikely that Oscar Valdez’s promoter Bob Arum of Top Rank will let him fight Russell Jr. Arum is a pretty shrewd judge of talent, and he tends to mostly match his Top Rank fighters against guys that they can absolutely beat. Valdez would not be a sure thing against a fighter like Russell Jr. For the reason, I don’t see Arum giving the green light to a fight between Russell Jr. and Valdez. When Russell Jr. starts showing decline, it’s possible Arum might let Oscar Valdez fight him then, but perhaps not even then. It’s unlikely. But it’s still possible for Russell Jr. to fight IBF champion Selby and WBA champion Leo Santa Cruz.

Russell has been a pro for nine years since 2009 after competing in the 2008 Olympics for the U.S. Earlier in Russell’s pro career, he was an active fighter, competing 3 times per year. It’s only after Russell Jr. won the WBC featherweight title in 2015, he’s slowed down, and become less ambitious in terms of his work schedule and the level of opposition that he’s faced. We’ll find out on Saturday if Russell’s inactivity will hurt him against Diaz.

It’s been 12 months since Russell Jr. last fought on May 20, 2017 in beating Oscar Escandon by a 7th round knockout at the MGM National Harbor. Russell Jr. looked great in that fight, showing no signs at all of decline. Russell Jr. had been out of the ring for 13 months since his 2nd round knockout win over Patrick Hyland in April 2016. It’s unclear what it is about Russell Jr., but he’s letting a year pass by for each time he fights, and the World Boxing Council is slowing him to do this. It can’t be good for the WBC to have their WBC 126lb. title only defended once a year.

For Russell, boxing is a business and he wants to make as much money as he can. This is what he says, but he’s failing to do that by not fighting often enough to take advantage of his youth.

“It’s a business. It’s definitely a business,” Russell said. “I’m not anxious (to fight more often). When it comes to earning potential, it’s definitely a business first before fighting. Whenever we do compete we’re going to make sure we maximize our coin because regardless of what our occupation is we want a sense of financial stability. And then a lot of these guys (in the featherweight division) aren’t really in a rush to get in the ring with Mr. Gary Russell Jr.”

Russell Jr. can maximize his money if he beats Diaz, and then looks to unify like he says. However, Russell might be smarter to move up to super featherweight if he can’t get the other top fighters at featherweight to face him. Russell Jr. can’t wait around hoping that these guys will face him, because they might not ever do it. If Russell Jr. moves up in weight to 130, he’ll have a chance to fight one of these champions: Gervonta Davis, Miguel Berchelt or Alberto Machado. Lomachenko is now fighting at lightweight, so a rematch against him is unlikely.

Prediction

Diaz Jr. might not have too much youth, power and size for Russell Jr. I see Diaz wearing down Russell Jr. in the second half of the fight and winning a 12 round decision.