By Dan Ambrose: Former WBA lightweight champion Brandon Rios believes that Golden Boy Promotions franchise fighter Saul “Canelo” Alvarez can beat middleweight champion Gennady “GGG” Golovkin if he chooses to box him from the outside, move around, and do what Kell Brook did last September against Triple G. Rios thinks that Golovkin would have problems with Canelo if he boxes him. However, if Canelo tries to stand and trade with Golovkin, he expects the Kazakhstan fighter to win by a knockout, because he believes that he’s stronger and more physical than Canelo.
Right now it’s still unknown if Golovkin and Canelo will ever face each other. Oscar De La Hoya, the promoter for Canelo, says they’ll fight next year in September, but he also says that Golovkin will need to agree to the eight-figure flat fee offer he made to him in order to get the fight. Golovkin wants a percentage deal. Without a percentage deal, there won’t be a fight.
Rios sees Golden Boy milking Canelo-Golovkin fight in order to make as much money as possible from it. Rios understands why they’re doing that in order to make more money, but he feels the boxing fans deserve to see it now rather than having to wait until both guys are older and shot fighters.
It’s hard to imagine Canelo being able to beat Golovkin by moving around for 12 rounds to try and box him. We saw in Canelo’s last fight against Liam Smith that he needed rest breaks in each round in which he would back up against the ropes and take a breather. Golovkin would tear into Canelo each time he stopped to rest against the ropes, and I don’t think he would be able to escape.
Canelo also doesn’t move well on his feet like Golovkin’s last opponent welterweight Kell Brook. The tank-like Canelo wouldn’t be able to escape Golovkin. Canelo is too heavy on his feet, his legs are too short, and he’s too much like a heavy body builder. Golovkin would have zero problems tracking Canelo down and forcing him to go to war against.
Canelo can brawl for a little while in each round, but he needs rest breaks due to his stamina problems. Canelo would likely need to rest against the ropes two or three times per round in order to catch his breath from the fast pace of the fight. Once that happens, Golovkin would obliterate him with shots.
Rios said to Fighthype.com this about the Golovkin vs. Canelo fight:
“They can do it now, but I think it’s smarter to do it business-wise and they’re going to try and milk it as much as they can until the fans really want it like Mayweather –Pacquiao,” said Rios about the Golovkin vs. Canelo fight. “They both make x-amount of money. The fans deserve to have it. Why wait that long? As a fan, we deserve to have the fight right now, and then fight number two, and not wait four more years when they’re both over the hill. Neither guy is going to get younger. They’re just going to get older.”
If Golden Boy waits three to four more years before they make the Canelo-Golovkin fight, they might end up with two shot fighters rather than just one. Canelo doesn’t look like he’s going to have a long career as a top fighter in my opinion. Even now, I think the only reason Canelo is doing well is because Golden Boy is matching him very carefully by putting him in with guys like Liam Smith, Amir Khan, Miguel Cotto and James Kirkland.
Those are not the cream of the crop at 154. Cotto used to be, but he’s older now and still the same fighter that Austin Trout easily beat four years ago. The fact that Canelo had to struggle to beat Cotto showed clearly how limited he is. Trout beat Cotto easier than Canelo did.
It looks like Golden Boy wants to make as much money as possible from the Canelo-Golovkin fight, so they’re probably not going to make it happen anytime soon. If Golden Boy can wait it out until there’s a huge amount of interest like the Manny Pacquiao vs. Floyd Mayweather Jr. fight from 2015, then they would make a lot of money off the fight. That money could be used for Golden Boy to sign other talented fighters to keep the promotional company at the top.
Where things could go wrong for Golden Boy is if Canelo or Golovkin get beaten by someone before they face each other for that cash out fight. The interest from boxing fans in the Canelo-Golovkin fight will die down, and it won’t be the fight that it could have been had Golden Boy not waited so long to make it. A big problem with Canelo is he doesn’t have the talent to take on the best guys at 154 and 160 and be counted on the win 100 percent of the time. We already saw Canelo win controversial decisions over Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout.
After those close calls, Golden Boy didn’t bother putting Canelo in with the younger talents at 154 like Demetrius Andrade, Jermell Charlo, Jermall Charlo and Julian Williams. Golden Boy also hasn’t matched Canelo against Golovkin and Daniel Jacobs. With Canelo rumored to be rehydrating into the 180s for his catchweight fights at 155, Golden Boy’s argument that he’s not a full 160 pound fighter yet is something of a joke.
Canelo is not only a middleweight, but he’s a BIG middleweight in terms of weight. At 5’9”, Canelo isn’t tall for a middleweight. Divisions in boxing go by weight, not by height. Canelo is a middleweight, and he needs to be fighting guys from his own weight class rather than boiling down to fight lighter guys at catchweights or at 154.
When asked who wins in the Canelo-Golovkin fight, Rios said, “Canelo. If Canelo can box him like [Kell] Brook did, and stay on the outside and just box him and move around, I think Canelo can win. But if Canelo stands there and trades with Triple G, I think Triple knocks him out. I think Triple G is the more physical, stronger guy, and I think he knocks him out. I see him [Golovkin] the same. I think Brook was the lighter guy. He had more energy, and moved around because he was smaller at the weight.”
Rios (33-3-1, 24 KOs) hasn’t fought since last November when he was stopped by Tim Bradley by a 9th round knockout. It’s unclear when Rios will resume his boxing career. He’s lost three out of his last five fights. You can argue that Rios deserved to lose against Diego Chaves and Richard Abril as well. If those two fights were counted as losses as well, Rios has lost five out of his last seven fights. That suggests that he’s a shot fighter at age 30.