https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMZ–tIVn-Y
By Dan Ambrose: Liam Smith (23-0-1, 13 KOs) is going into his fight against Mexican superstar Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (47-1-1, 33 KOs) as the underdog on September 17, but as far as he’s concerned, he’s the better fighter and he’ll prove that by beating Alvarez in their match at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
For the boxing fans that see Smith as an easy mark for Canelo, Smith is quick to point out that he doesn’t have a weak chin and that he’s a bigger fighter than Amir Khan, the last opponent that Canelo beat in May of this year.
Smith, 27, will be putting up his World Boxing Organization 154lb title for this contest, and he intends on keeping his belt by beating the brakes of Canelo and showing once and for all that the fans and members of the media have misjudged him by not recognizing his talent.
“I’m bigger and more solid than Amir, and I have a good chin,” said Liam Smith. “He’s a world class fighter, but I’ll do it and I know I’ll do it.”
The Smith vs. Canelo fight will be televised on HBO pay-per-view in the U.S and on BoxNation in the UK. It’s probably not going to do well as far as pay-per-view buys go in the States, but it looks like Canelo and his promoters at Golden Boy are convinced that it will bring in big number due to the fight taking place on the Mexican Independence Day Holiday weekend.
There will be a lot of Mexican boxing fans that will want to sit down and order Canelo fight due to it being televised during the weekend. Golden Boy obviously is counting on those fans wanting to still purchase the fight despite Smith not being a well-known fighter.
The one thing that Smith has going for him is his ability to fight at a fast pace for 12 rounds. Fighting at a fast pace is Canelo’s Achilles heel, because he’s never shown the ability to fight hard in his career due to him having major stamina problems.
The stamina issues likely result from Canelo having to take off so much weight to get down to both 154 and 155 for his fights. If Canelo would just fight at the correct weight for his body size, I think much of his stamina problems would be answered. At this point in Canelo’s career, I’m not sure what the right weight is for him, because his weight is no longer being revealed by HBO on the night that he fights.
Obviously, HBO will discuss what Canelo weighs in at for his weigh-ins, but they seemed to have stopped discussing what Canelo is rehydrating to on the nights of his fights. If Canelo is really rehydrating to 185 or even 187, as said recently by Amir Khan, then he might need to move to the super middleweight division [168lbs] to be totally comfortable fighting guys his own weight. Fighters in the super middleweight division tend to rehydrating to 185 or so. There are not too many super middleweights that are rehydrating to 188, I imagine. That’s 20 pounds and it’s too much weight.
Liam Smith’s keys to victory against Canelo come down to these areas:
Fast pace: It’s very, very important that Smith fights at an incredibly fast pace in this fight, given that Canelo has to take frequent rest breaks. Like I said, Canelo is fighting at the wrong weight class, and he has to take off massive amounts of water weight to get down to the 154 and 155 pound weight limits. Taking off the weight and putting it back on quickly has got to be extremely hard on Canelo’s body. This is probably why we see Canelo tire out when his opponents push a fast pace. Canelo doesn’t have the stamina to keep fighting hard and never will until he moves up to super middleweight or light heavyweight to get with guys his own size.
High work rate in looking at Smith’s past fights, he has a problem with a low work rate. He’s got to be able to throw more punches against Canelo for him to have a chance of pulling an upset in this fight. If all Smith is going to do is throw one punch every 10 seconds, he’ll wind up letting Canelo have all the rest breaks that he needs to win this fight.
Staying close Canelo needs to have to have space so he can take gulps of air to recover from the fast pace. He won’t be able to do this if Smith stays very close to him and keeps hitting him in the midsection repeatedly. One of the hardest things for a stamina-plagued fighter to take is body shots. They don’t like it to the body, and I think Canelo is no different. If Smith keeps laying into Canelo with body shots, I won’t be surprised if Canelo takes a knee like we saw with Miguel Cotto taking a knee in his first fight against Antonio Margarito in 2008. Canelo won’t like the body shots, and I see him escaping the pressure by taking a knee if Smith stays close to him.
Not letting Canelo rest: This area fits in with setting a fast pace. Smith cannot let Canelo have a moment of rest where he’s not getting hit and pressured. Canelo NEEDS these rest breaks, and he’ll do anything to try and get them by backing off and getting some space so he can take a few gulps of oxygen. If you look at Canelo during these moments, he’s like a gold fish out of water. He’s really sucking wind and exhausted. His opponents are usually so poor and/or smaller than him that they can’t take advantage of it. Canelo has fought a couple of good fighters in Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Miguel Cotto in the last three years, but they were a lot smaller. Mayweather beat Canelo, and you can argue that Cotto deserved a draw and Erislandy Lara deserved a win.
I think Smith has a very good chance of winning this fight against Canelo if he pushes a fast enough pace, throws a lot of punches, and doesn’t let him rest. Smith might also need to score a knockout, as I don’t think the judges will give him a decision win over the more popular Canelo.