By Peter Wells (twitter @boxingbrains): The story of Josesito Lopez 30-5(18KOs) since the start of 2011 has been quite simple, Win, Lose, Win, Lose. So if this was an exam then when I asked you what comes next in the sequence, the simple answer would be Win. But then comes the catch. If boxing were an exam it would be the most unorthodox exam on earth. Is then this pattern of results just a coincidence… Yes! There is no formula in boxing, and Josesito Lopez and Marcos Maidana will know that, they know they have to invent their own chemical equation without the help of a textbook, in order to come out with the right answer. And for the last couple of months that is exactly what both fighters and trainers have been doing, now comes the test, and as they enter the exam room they will both know the questions they are asked will not be entirely in line with what they revised for.
So after that long boxing metaphor, I’ll cut it down to the basics. Marcos Maidana 33-3(30KOs) comes into the bout off the back of an impressive stoppage victory of Jesus Soto Karass(TKO 8) and a knockout of novice Angel Martinez(KO 3). Prior to that Maidana was dominated on points by IBF Welterweight champion Devon Alexander(L UD 10). Maidana’s other two defeats both came on points over 12 rounds against Amir Khan(L UD) & Andriy Kotelnik(L SD 12). The clue in the 30 knockouts is that Maidana is a very hard puncher although his 18 fight knockout streak was halted by DeMarcus Corley(UD 12) who despite suffering a knock down lasted the 12 rounds. Erik Morales(MD 12) is the only other fighter to go 12 rounds with Maidana and lose.
Like Maidana, Josesito Lopez’s biggest victory came against Victor Ortiz, who in both fights received criticism that was over the top, mostly from keyboard warriors who have never suffered a broken jaw before. I have never once questioned Ortiz’s heart – I would never question anyone’s heart if they get into the ring – but it instead seems to be more of a mental issue, where Ortiz makes rash decisions when the going gets tough, most notably against Floyd Mayweather. Lopez against Ortiz still had a chance of winning the fight on points after the 9th round when he broke Victor Ortiz’s jaw. But Ortiz made the quick decision to retire on his stool giving Lopez the victory.
In the Maidana-Ortiz fight, or more accurately, War, both fighters suffered numerous knockdowns, but after a 2nd knockdown Ortiz decided enough was enough. In this instance it seemed like Ortiz in his mind thought he wasn’t going to win the fight, handing Maidana a 6th round TKO win.
Either side of Lopez’s win against Ortiz he was beaten over 10 rounds by Jesse Vargas(L SD 10) and was stopped when making the error of moving up to Light Middleweight to face Saul Alvarez(L TKO 5).
Although for myself, Lopez has the slightly better boxing ability Maidana will make it hard for Lopez to resist trading. At times Maidana can look terribly open but if Lopez is to dive for the bait he could fall into a nasty trap. If Lopez is the better boxer then the Argentinian Maidana is by far the harder puncher, and having such a solid chin suggests for Lopez to win it’ll have to come via points.
It is a hard fight to call but I expect a cagey opening 3 or 4 rounds, where Lopez can take an early lead with higher activity. Maidana will then start to sting the American as he uses head movement to slip the long range punches from Lopez. Maidana will enjoy success when he pins Lopez on the ropes where he struggled against Alvarez. The pick is for Maidana’s ability to trap Lopez on the ropes to be the difference in the fight, and I expect Marcos to take a deserved victory on points.
Although the victor will hope that money fights come pouring in afterwards, the likely scenario is that the winner and loser will both be looking at fights with the likes of Ruslan Provodnikov, Andre Berto and rematches with Victor Ortiz, and for Maidana Amir Khan. Although these fights aren’t too shabby for the fans though.
On the undercard is an interesting mash of styles when brawler Alfredo Angulo 22-2(18KOs) and the Cuban stylist Erislandy Lara 17-1-2(11KOs). The pick is for Lara to neutralise Angulo early but his sometimes negative style may result in Angulo coming back into the fight and being awarded a very close maybe split decision.
Also Jermell Charlo 20-0(10KOs) makes a further step towards a Light Middleweight world title when he takes on Demetrius Hopkins 33-2-1(13KOs). The pick is for Charlo to dominate past round 3 on route to a points win.
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