(Photo: Alma Montiel) By Dan Ambrose: I give 40-year-old Shane Mosley (46-7-1, 39 KO’s) three rounds to try and get WBC junior middleweight champion Saul Alvarez (39-0-1, 29 KO’s) out of their on May 5th before Mosley goes into a state of vapor lock for the remainder of the fight and loses by a lopsided 12 round decision at the MGM Grand, in Las Vegas, Nevada. Mosley doesn’t have the stamina anymore that he once had and fades after the first two to three rounds. This is why Alvarez is going to have to really go for broke against the 21-year-old Alvarez on May 5th.
Mosley still have excellent power, but he’s going to have to empty his fuel tank in the first quarter of the fight to have a chance at beating Alvarez. We’ve seen Alvarez hurt early in fight against Jose Miguel Cotto in the 1st round in his 9th round TKO win in May 2010. That wasn’t that long ago, and while Alvarez has improved since then, his chin likely is the same. Alvarez also has a bad habit of fighting in 1st gear through much of his fights, especially in the early rounds.
Alvarez could find himself in trouble if Mosley turns up the head all of a sudden by flurrying on him with speedy combinations for a round or two. Alvarez could get blown out like heavyweight Andrew Golota did when he fought Lennox Lewis. Alvarez doesn’t come into his fights with the speedy and energy in the rounds and he could be vulnerable to Mosley if he lets it all go early. Mosley might as well fire off everything in the first few rounds because he’s going to gas regardless and lose. At least this way he’ll have a brief fighting chance to win.
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