By Dan Ambrose: I’ve never been very impressed with former WBC/WBO middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik (37-2, 32 KO’s) in the past, but I’ve seen enough of him to know that he’s more than good enough to beat IBF super middleweight champion Lucian Bute (29-0, 21 Ko’s) when they mix it up later on this year on November 5th in the United States.

Bute doesn’t have the the power or the speed needed to beat a big puncher like Pavlik. I don’t care that Pavlik has been exposed in the past against Sergio Martinez and Bernard Hopkins, he’s got the power and the style to beat Bute.

In looking at Bute’s 4th round knockout win over challenger Jean-Paul Mendy last Saturday night, I saw a fighter that has lost a lot of his foot speed and elusiveness that made Bute a good fighter in the past. He still holds his right arm down by his side like he’s always done and still backs away when his opponents come at him.

The difference now is Bute moves a lot slower and gets hit much more often than he used to get hit in the past. Bute is still winning but that’s only because he’s facing such awful opposition. Bute has been facing weak opponents since he picked up the belt in 2007, and in facing Pavlik, Bute will be facing a guy twice as dangerous as anyone he’s faced before. I think Bute is fighting on borrowed time because if it wasn’t someone like Pavlik that was going to get him other top super middleweights like Andre Ward and Carl Froch would surely beat him. Those guys are a level above Bute from what I can see of him.

Bute likes to throw a left uppercut and that’s really his only weapon. He’s got a weak pawing jab, his right hand is weak and useless and his overhand left is nothing special. He’s like the Razor Ruddock of the super middleweight division. Pavlik will do well against Bute because he’ll take his occasional uppercuts and keep firing left hooks and right hands.

Bute will be able to dash away from some of them but Pavlik will hit enough to wear him down and take him out. I see Bute as being the perfect opponent for Pavlik’s fighting style. It takes a fighter with good footwork to beat Pavlik and Bute doesn’t move well enough or throw shots quick enough to defeat Pavlik. Bute has slipped a notch through aging and doesn’t move like he used to. And he never did have a great chin as we saw in his questionable win over Librado Andrade, who isn’t a big puncher, and with his knockout loss to Gennady Golovkin in the amateur ranks.