By Dave Lahr: Former IBF flyweight champion Nonito Donaire (25-1, 17 KO’s) is seen as another Manny Pacquiao by some of his loving boxing fans, who are looking for a replacement for the aging Pacquiao. They think Donaire, 28, will be able to successfully move from division to division collecting titles in the same manner that Pacquiao has been able to do recently. Donaire failed to capture a major title at super flyweight and has now skipped up to bantamweight, where he challenges the best fighter at that weight WBC/WBO bantamweight champion Fernando Montiel (44-2-2, 34 KO’s) at the Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino, in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Montiel is a monstrous puncher who tends to leave his opponents in a heap on the canvas in the first few rounds of his fights. Donaire, in contrast, is someone that likes to pound his over-matched opponents but doesn’t like to get hit in return. Indeed, Donaire actively avoids getting hit and tends to start moving when he gets hit hard. The issue in this fight is that Donaire will getting hit hard and he will be feeling a lot of pain. He’s going to get hit, he’s going to get hurt, and he’s probably going to bleed a lot if he fights to win.

If Donaire just tries to survive by running for his life, then he’ll spare himself the pain of having to feel the powerful shots and feel his skin being rearranged by Montiel’s powerful punches. Of course, Donaire won’t win if he doesn’t stand in front of Montiel and look to trade. You can beat lesser fighters by running around the ring, but a champion like Montiel, you have to fight him and beat him at his own game to get the win. Will Donaire run and look to keep from getting knocked out or will he stand and trade? My guess he’ll be running when he tastes the lash of Montiel’s power shots on February 19th.