By Nick Bannister: On 20th November we finally get to see the rematch of one of the closest and best fights of last year, Paul Williams Vs Sergio Martinez for the Ring Middleweight title. In an incredible few weeks for the sport, with 5 of the Ring’s Top 10 P4P fighters in action, among many other excellent fights, this is the one I am looking forward to the most. In this article I will try to analyze what went right and wrong for both men in the first bout, and what will be the keys to victory this time around.
In the first installment of the fight, Martinez dominated the early exchanges, catching Williams time and again with accurate, hard shots, particularly using a left to the body, right to the head combination that badly cut Williams’ left eye. What was notable in the early exchanges was not just how well Martinez threw punches, but how good his ring generalship was. He controlled distance against a substantially bigger man, slipped punches easily, and countered with power. His only mistake was the early knock down, where his feet were badly out of place and he was knocked down by a cuffing shot from Williams. Despite the knock down, Martinez won the round after he scored an excellent knock down with a right hook, and in the early exchanges it looked as if we might be seeing a repeat of the first Williams-Quintana fight, where Williams was made to look very bad in suffering a unanimous decision loss to a more precise and accurate fighter.
However, in the middle rounds of the fight, Williams applied excellent pressure and drew Martinez in to an all out war, trading hard, accurate shots in the centre of the ring. Whether Martinez got over-confident or Williams figured out how to cut off the ring I’m not sure, maybe a little of both, but Williams began landing with more regularity, and although Martinez landed bigger shots, Williams won many of the middle rounds by landing a lot of shots, though none appeared to seriously trouble Sergio.
Martinez appeared to tire later in the fight, even appearing close to collapse in the ninth and eleventh rounds, however his superior timing continued to pay dividends, and he showed real heart to keep fighting through the fatigue and landed more hard right hands to Williams’ badly cut left eye. The body-head combination that Williams appeared to have figured out in the middle rounds returned with a vengeance, and the fight ended with Martinez looking the better boxer and Williams the better athlete. The scorecards were 114-114, and 115-113 and 119-110 to Williams, with the last scorecard being a total travesty (and called as much by everyone involved in the HBO broadcast). To me, Williams threw more and looked fresher at the end, but the damage on the two fighters faces told the real story, with Martinez looking like he hadn’t fought and Williams looking like he’d been beaten up. I’d have given it 115-113 to Martinez, but wouldn’t have argued too hard against 116-112 or a draw. Pretty much every round after 3 was close enough to go either way, for the record I had Williams winning 4,5,9,10 and 12, and Martinez 1-3, 6-8 and 11. I though Martinez won his rounds more clearly than Williams won his, but that doesn’t matter on a 10 point scoring system. Although I couldn’t see that being Williams’ fight, the only thing that was completely clear at the end however was that they needed to go again.
Both have fought once since, Martinez schooling a bigger but plodding Kelly Pavlik to win a wide decision and The Ring Middleweight title, and Williams winning a bizarre fight with Cintron in which Cintron fell through the ropes and hit his head on a monitor, and was unable to continue. Martinez looked like an even sharper and more savvy version of the fighter that gave Williams hell, and we learned precious little about Williams in what was an awful then bizarre fight. So, what will happen this time, and who needs to do what to win?
For Williams, what is clear is that he must control the distance, and use his reach and volume punching better than he did before. Williams allowed Martinez to dance around him and slip his shots, and if that happens again, Williams is in trouble, as Martinez has the power to hurt him with right hooks. With a height difference as great as it is, Williams must try to make more of it this time around. Williams also needs to keep his left hand high to protect his left eye and to nullify what was Sergio’s most dangerous weapon against him. If Williams can snap his jab out and back fast, and follow with quick straight right hands, using his reach, speed and lateral movement to keep Sergio where he wants him, he could take away what gave Sergio the edge last time. Though both are excellent athletes, it seemed in the first fight that Williams can keep up a higher pace for 12 rounds than Martinez, and in the fights with Williams and Pavlik, Martinez has punched himself out and lost rounds as a result. If Williams can pressure intelligently and protect his left side, he could win comfortably. That however, is easier said than done against one of the smartest and technically gifted men in the game. If Williams protects his left side with high hands, Martinez is smart enough to look for openings he didn’t need last time out. In that respect Martinez is like Juan Manuel Marquez, a very clever fighter who knows how to find a route to victory against tough guys who put him under pressure.
For Martinez, he simply needs to do what he did in the first three rounds against Williams, and in the first and last four against Pavlik, and use his better timing, footwork and ring generalship to out box his opponent. He made a very fast Williams look slow when jabbing, and worked inside quickly, landing 2 punch combos then getting out of range before Williams could land anything dangerous, and this needs to be kept up for longer. His trainer could be key to keeping him out of a war. When sucked in, Martinez has all the heart anyone needs, but he is not a Cotto type fighter who wins best when it gets ugly in close. It might make for a great fight, but the better this fight is for a spectator, the more chance Martinez has of losing it. If Williams makes it a war again but fights smarter, Martinez could tire and get beaten. This must not happen. Martinez can counter punch his way through this, and I hope for his sake he doesn’t try to trade toe to toe again to impress the judges. If they slug at each other for twelve Williams will get a decision whether he deserves it or not. Hopefully for his sake getting the decision against Pavlik (which would have been a travesty had it gone any other way) will have settled any worries about the poor judging first time around.
So, who will win? I would be surprised only by an early knock out (I could see someone going down, but they are both too strong to stay down), with all other options on the table. Both can certainly win, though I suspect neither quite has the power to knock the other out. My guess is that Martinez will control the opening exchanges, and Williams will finish stronger, and that rounds 4-8 will be the key. Paul will try and drive Sergio on to the ropes and in to a war, and Sergio will try and move away from trouble and land a couple as he does. Who wins that argument in my opinion wins the fight.
The adjustments Martinez has to make are to his game plan but those for Williams’ are to his style, and I think that this gives Sergio what will prove the ultimate advantage. I’d predict Sergio to deserve a close decision, and I hope if he wins the fight then the judges do the right thing, especially as the rubber match would give us an early fight of the year contender to pencil in for 2011.
This is my first article, please let me know what you think of it, at nicholasjoelbannister@gmail.com. Thanks for reading, and I hope you enjoy the next few weeks as much as I am going to.
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