By Matt Stein: Former light heavyweight champion Chad Dawson (29-0, 17 KO’s) may have only a two inch height advantage over the 5’11” WBC light heavyweight champion Jean Pascal (25-1, 16 KO’s), but his 11” inch reach advantage is going to be huge for Dawson tonight when he challenges Pascal for his World Boxing Council title at the Bell Centre, in Montreal, Canada.

Anytime you have a fighter with a foot reach advantage over their opponent, it makes it almost impossible for the fighter with the shorter reach to compete. When you add in the fact that Dawson’s hands are faster and that he has the better boxing skills compare to Pascal, it leaves you with little doubt who’s going to win the fight tonight.

Dawson is also a southpaw, and that’s just more thing that he has going for him in this fight tonight. For Pascal to have any chance to win tonight, he’s going to have to be able to crowd Dawson and hope that the American fighter lets him work on the inside.

That’s not going to happen. Dawson isn’t a plodder. He’s not going to just stand there and let the Canadian based Pascal have at it in close, because that’s not Dawson’s style of fighting. Dawson will be on the move constantly, jabbing and using his long reach advantage. You can expect the short-armed Pascal to be eating a lot of leather tonight as he comes forward. Pascal has always been kind of a wild puncher known for missing a lot with his wide swings. Pascal will likely miss more than usual tonight, because Dawson will be out of range and his movement will make things a lot tougher for Pascal. Dawson’s left hand will also be a problem for Pascal, because Dawson is able to throw his left with blinding speed.

Pascal has always been very hittable, even against the mostly B level fighters that he’s been matched against during his career. Dawson will have no problems landing his shots against the wide open Pascal. I see this fight getting way out of hand early, as Pascal gets lit up with punch after punch from the long armed Dawson.

Unless Pascal takes a lot of chances and maybe gets lucky, he’s going to end up losing every round in a humiliating fashion. I think Pascal’s only chance of winning is if he can stun Dawson and then knock him out with a flurry of shots. That’s probably not going to happen though.

If anyone is getting knocked out in this fight, it will likely be Pascal, because he’s way in over his head against a talented fighter like Dawson.