By Jim Dower: Allan Green (29-1, 20 KO’s) has a formidable task in front of him on June 19th against WBA super middleweight champion Andre Ward (21-0, 13 KO’s) in taking him on in their stage Super Six tournament fight at the Oracle Arena, in Oakland, California. For the 30-year-old Green, this will be his first fight of the Super Six tournament, as he’s replacing Jermain Taylor who departed after getting viciously knocked out by Arthur Abraham. Green is going into this fight with little experience against top level opposition and virtually no wins over big times fighters.

Many boxing experts, though, only give Green a slight puncher’s chance at beating Ward on June 19th, because the younger 26-year-old Ward is so hardly to hit cleanly with shots. However, instead of looking to take Ward out with one big shot, which would seem to be the smart thing for Green to do, he says “I know I have the power to knock Andre Ward out, but I’m not looking for a one punch knockout with him. If he opens himself up for a knockout, I’m going to take it. He’s a very clever fighter and a hard fighter to catch with a knockout punch. I’m going to fight a smart fight. My training and conditioning has prepared me to go 12 rounds if I have to go the distance.”

I expect Green to go the full 12 rounds, but I suspect that Green will fare no better than Ward’s last opponent Mikkel Kessler, who Ward easily beat by a one-sided 11 round technical decision last November. Green doesn’t appear to be in Kessler’s class, so this fight figures to be an even easier fight for Ward than that one. The one thing that you can’t really plan for is whether Ward’s surgically repaired right knee can hold up on him. His knee swelled up on him while training for Green, causing the fight to be postponed until June 19th.

Ward’s game is based on movement and speed and if he can’t move well or plant his right leg hard, he could be fighting at much less than 100%. This could give Green enough of a chance to make the fight interesting. I still think Green won’t have what it takes to beat Ward even if he’s stationary because Green doesn’t throw a lot of punches, has a questionable chin and seems to look confused and uncertain when he’s getting a lot of hard punches thrown at him. Edison Miranda has Green almost paralyzed in their fight in 2007, and it was as if Green had stage fright against the big punching Miranda.

Ward doesn’t punch like Miranda, but he does throw a lot more punches than him and punches hard enough to cause Green to go in his shell and look to survive rather than win. The bad thing for Green is this fight is a must win if he wants to move into the semi finals of the tournament. Even though Green hasn’t yet fought in the Super Six tourney, he comes into the fight inheriting the zero points from Taylor, who he replaced. As such, if Green loses this fight it’s all over for him. He’ll still have one more fight in the opening round of the Super Six tournament against Mikkel Kessler but won’t have a chance to get to the semi finals.