Mitchell: “I can bust him [Katsidis] up”

By Scott Gilfoid: Lightweight contender Kevin Mitchell (31-0, 23 KO’s) thinks he’s going to be able to bust up WBO lightweight interim champion Michael Katsidis (26-2, 21 KO’s) on May 15th at Upton Park. In a press release sent out today, the 25-year-old Mitchell said “He’s [Katsidis] a proper warrior and a real gentleman too. But he’s had some tough fights in his time and you can see the scar tissue on his face. I can but him up and win this fight. I’ve had some tough years, but this is my chance to make a name for myself and secure a future for both me and my family. People go on about hungry fighters, but I am a starving fighter. I want this more than anything.”

It’s nice to want, but you got to have the talent to beat the better fighters in the lightweight division and unfortunately I see Mitchell not measuring up to the level of Katsidis. Mitchell is correct about Katsidis having scar tissue around his eyes, but what he fails to mention is that Katsidis is a rare fighter who fights just as effectively with cuts as he does without them. Katsidis has tremendous stamina and is the textbook version of a pressure fighter. Katsidis just never lets up for a second and stays on top of his opponents all night. And unlike Ricky Hatton, another pressure fighter, Katsidis doesn’t leap in with hooks and leave himself wide open the way that Hatton did when punching.

Mitchell says he’s had some “tough years” during his career. I assume he’s meaning in terms of not making a lot of money, because he really hasn’t faced anyone other than Breidis Prescott. That guy is easily Mitchell’s best opponent of his career thus far, and I think Prescott won that fight, which took place in Mitchell’s home country of the UK. This fight wasn’t seen by a lot of boxing fans outside of the UK, unfortunately.

Mitchell’s promoter Frank Warren thinks that Mitchell will beat Katsidis, saying “Kevin definitely gets my vote and if he lets his head rule his heart then he can win this one on a landslide.” First of all, I’m not surprised that he thinks that Mitchell will win. That’s a no brainer. But what Frank says about Mitchell about letting his head rule his heart gives me a pretty good idea what Mitchell will be doing in the Katsidis fight. In other words, what this essentially means is that Mitchell can win if he doesn’t mix it up and try to brawl with Katsidis. That’s what I expected.

No way will Mitchell stand in the trenches with a big puncher like Katsidis. Instead what we’ll probably be seeing is a replay of Mitchell’s performance against Prescott where Mitchell will move constantly, throw an occasional pot shot and look to jab and move all night long. It’s kind of the same technique that David Haye used in his fight with WBA heavyweight champion Nikolay Valuev last year. It’s the old hit and run.

With that kind of style, it will drastically limit Mitchell’s punch output to the point where he will only land a small handful of shots in every round and the judges will be forced to decide whether Mitchell’s five to ten punches landed are more significant than the 30 to 40 shots that Katsidis lands in the round. It would be easy for me to decide, since the fighter that is landing more often should be the one that wins the round. Also the fighter that is the aggressor should be getting the nod. In this case, I see Katsidis as being the one making the fight, landing the harder shots. He should be the one that wins basically all the rounds – at least the ones where Mitchell is running and not throwing enough punches.

If Mitchell stops running and trades with Katsidis for the entire three minutes, then I could give the rounds to Mitchell, but only if he’s getting the better of Katsidis. However, I can’t see that happening. Katsidis is too powerful and will likely destroy Mitchell before long if the British fighter tries to actually fight him. I see Mitchell as a combination of Joe Frazier and Chris Byrd and Katsidis as a young George Foreman. Katsidis is going to be looking to take Mitchell’s head off all night long. The only way Mitchell can win the fight is by running all night long and getting the decision by the judges, albeit one that could be controversial by the end of it.