By Niko Tricarico: On November 14th Miguel Cotto will most likely beat Manny Pacquiao with an emphatic mid to late round knockout. Although Cotto is the underdog, the common rebuttal to the current spread is that he is too big and too strong. While the physical advantages are stacked in Cotto’s favor regarding size and strength, these are not the only reasons Cotto will emerge the victor. Cotto will win because he is simply a better fighter.

The skills he demonstrated against Mosley and Judah in their 2007 battles illustrates the great ability Cotto has to nullify speed and counter effectively. Many critics are quick to point out that Cotto was rocked by Judah’s jolting left uppercut and was forced to resort to dirty tactics in order to buy time, but this is an exaggerated claim. Cotto’s knees never buckled nor did his legs waiver in mid air; he never stopped defending himself or throwing back and wasn’t caught with any significant successive punches. But the initial hit, combined with the fervor of the crowd, gave the impression that Judah had Cotto in trouble. He didn’t. It was a tremendous uppercut, but at the time of the low blow the two fighters had regained their composure and were already boxing at a more measured pace.

When matched up with Pacquiao it is Cotto who has the better jab, the better balance, the bigger punch and the better defense. While each fighter’s last three bouts might point to the contrary, Pacquiao has proven to be easier to hit than Cotto in terms of frequency.

However, no fight outcome is certain; and if a 42 to 1 underdog can come off the canvas and knockout Mike Tyson, then those who raise their arms in victory at the end of a fight can never be prophesized with anything more than an educated guess, which usually degenerates into a devoted fan’s aching desire. Bias is an unforgiving and often painful blindfold and if Pacquiao does win then he actually would warrant the unabashed outpouring of accolades and comparisons to former division jumping greats such as Henry Armstrong that he already receives based off his outstanding though misinterpreted performances against Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton.

So, yes…Pacquiao could win. He could dart in and out with his lightening fast right jab and catch Cotto by surprise with a slew of straight left hands, splitting his guard and snapping his head back. He could force Cotto to back pedal, trapping him in the corners and against the ropes, unleashing a torrent of vicious combinations to the body and head. A bloodied Cotto might fight on in vein, but would ultimately succumb to the pressure of the Filipino’s flailing fists. So, yes…Pacquiao could win.

Or the public could finally remember who Cotto is and watch in humbled reverence as he derails the sensational career of the former light flyweight.

I like Manny Pacquaio, just not against Miguel Cotto.