By Edgar Perez: In the past few months, no match-up has garnered the attention of so many boxing fans like the match-up on November 14 between Manny Pacquiao and Miguel Cotto. Even before Cotto stepped in the ring for his last fight with Clottey, the hype train for this fight had already left the station. Such attention is well deserved for two very skilled and courageous fighters who don’t dodge anyone nor are afraid to bang when need be.
In contrast to another significant fight this fall, neither headliner will forfeit any money in order to stack the undercard, because fans are genuinely interested in the main event; there will be no need to post-pone the fight due to low ticket sales and then say it was due to injuries; there will be no need to move the fight to a Puerto Rican or Filipino holiday; there will be no need for Tecate to discount the PPV $25. The only question surrounding the promotion for this event will be how much or how little will HBO want to spend in comparison with that other fight taking place. They could pocket allot of money because this fight is selling itself.
Early on, people questioned whether this was the right fight at the wrong time, which is a legitimate question. Even Roach went on record saying Mayweather was the best match-up in terms of chances for a Pacquiao victory as well as the money generated by such an event. If you consider possible match-ups Manny has at welterweight with Mayweather, Mosely, and Cotto, the fight that represents the least risk for the most reward on paper is the Cotto match-up. A Mayweather-Pacquiao fight has the potential to break the pay per view record, so even if they split the pot evenly both men stand to make a ton of money but the concern is Mayweather’s speed and skill will be allot for Pacquiao to handle, risking a possible loss in a stinker of a fight. Still, it should have happened were it not for Mayweather signing the Marquez fight instead of waiting one day for Pacquiao to fight Hatton, something that Roach lamented. On the other hand, Mosely can be a dangerous opponent for twelve rounds because of his power and chin, but Pacquiao’s reward would not be as sweet in such a match as either fight with Mayweather or Cotto. Roach said that Pacquiao is making twice as much money fighting Cotto as he would fighting Mosely, which makes the choice between those two fights the easiest. Another consideration is who has the least left in the tank, where the majority of people have expressed the opinion that a twenty-eight year old Cotto probably has the least left in the tank out of all three, including the thirty-seven year old Mosely. One can certainly get that impression by Cotto’s recent performances, where he has looked so vulnerable at times. Perhaps it may not even be how much is left in the tank, but rather where each fighter stands in terms of being “on” or “off” their game, in which case Cotto does look a little “off” his game. This fight truly makes the most business sense for all parties involved at this time. When all is said and done, both Pacquiao and Cotto will have their biggest paydays, and Arum gets to keep the change, making this fight financially significant. Since this fight is taking place at 145lb for the 147lb title, it will also historically significant, regardless of how people feel about the catch-weight. The opportunity to come away with a seventh title in a seventh weight-class is just something that Pacquiao could not pass up. The Cotto fight was the most sensible choice for Pacquiao.
It is also an intriguing contrast in talents, abilities and styles between Pacquiao and Cotto. Pacquiao has such blazing speed, especially at these higher weights, that opponents have barely been able to react to his movements. He has developed a decent right hook to add to his straight left, power arsenal, under the tutelage of Roach. He also seems to have carried his knockout power in both hands against larger opponents. Cotto does the majority of his damage with the left hand, being left-handed, but even though some have criticized his lack of focus on the right hand, he still manages to put it together in a fight. An ability that Pacquiao has greatly improved in recent fights is his defense. He has barely been touched in his last several fights which is a testament to how far he has come as a boxer. With both fighters agreeing to 8-ounce punchers gloves, Roach is betting that Pacquiao will deal with Cotto’s power with speed and lateral movement. He will need every bit of that ability against Cotto who is not as fast but most past opponents say that his punches are very hard punishing shots. Cotto is very strong no doubt, having faced some of the biggest welterweights but he’ll need more than that to beat Pacquiao. Cotto’s defense must improve against Pacquiao or it will be a long night if Cotto’s size is not the advantage he thought it might be against Pacquiao. Stylewise, Cotto is methodical and persistant at dismantling his opponents while Pacquiao thrives on blitzing his opponents, fighting in a broken rhythm, and offsetting the opponents’ ability to react. One might come away thinking that Pacquiao has the majority of the advantages except that for Cotto the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. These are two very different fighters, each whose essence as a boxer was forged in very different ring experiences.
The high level of unknown factors which are the perceived vulnerabilities of each fighter has also added to the curiousity of this match. One of the oft repeated factors is the size factor. While one can agree that Pacquiao’s incursion into the higher weight classes like the welterweight division is inherently riskier you cannot easily say that Cotto would be any more dangerous than any of the other welterweights mentioned earlier. Every fight at this weight class presents a level of danger for Pacquiao that transcends talent and ability. This is why Pacquiao has endeared himself to fans worldwide because every fight like this is a gutsy move. A positive facet of this factor in Pacquiao’s favor is that Cotto is a classy boxer; he refuses to clinch, negating much of his size advantage. Another factor repeated often is the idea that Cotto is damaged. This is really difficult to asses off of two fights following such a devastating loss against Margarito. Some suggest that Margarito cracked his chin or even worse that he beat the fight out of him in that fight. There’s no way of knowing that for sure until we see this fight but we do know about the physical damage that he suffered that did resurface in his last fight, a tendency to cut. This has led some much respected people in boxing to say that Cotto’s face will not hold up twelve rounds against Pacquiao. Yet another factor is the distractions that occur when such a high profile fight is taking place. While Pacquiao is definitely the more distracted fighter at the moment, both fighters have felt the need to get away from the hometown pressures and move their camps to less distracting places. Both fighters have talked about retirement in the near future. How successful will each one be at focusing on this fight as outside forces begin to impact their preparation? At this time, Cotto seems to be the one most focused on this fight. We will soon find out if Pacquiao can pull himself away from the madness that his stardom has resulted in, when camp opens up. Finally, is their a danger that either fighter might be too overconfident, not appreciating what the other brings to the match? There are hints that one or both may fall into that category, with members of the Pacquiao camp refering to Cotto as one-dimensional and Cotto saying he’s not impressed with Pacquiao. There is reason to be impressed with what both have accomplished in the ring and it would be a very foolish mistake for either to not take the other seriously. These are the side stories that add spice to a match-up of this magnitude.
One known factor in this fight is the Freddie Roach factor. What Pacquiao has become under Roach is undeniable. He has become as skillful as he is talented. Roach dissects the fighters while Manny trusts him and executes flawlessly whatever gameplan he lays out for him. While Pacquiao has been improving in skill, Roach said Pacquiao will show how far Cotto has regressed in skill since the Margarito fight. Except that the physical nature of that fight has nothing to do with the regression of skill. Perhaps what he meant and perhaps the case that can be made is that Evangelista Cotto’s deteriorating relationship with Miguel Cotto has more to do with the regression of his skills, than anyone cares to admit at this time. Joe Santiago is just a nutritionist playing a boxing trainer, not benefiting Miguel in the least in the area of game planning and technique. With no trainer there is no strategy and no ability to assess Pacquiao objectively. Like Emanuel Stewart says, Cotto can beat Pacquiao with the right strategy, that comes with getting the correct assesment of what Pacquiao brings to the ring. Cotto does not have that. The importance of the trainers in this fight is another intriguing aspect of this match-up.
There can be negative things about all this hype for one fight. One is that the discussions can turn negative if the fans of each boxer focus on the faults of the other boxer in order to make the case for their fighter’s chances. As fans of not just the fighters but also the sport, we hope both men are at their best and that they put on the best show possible, while coming out of this healthy. This leads into another negative aspect that it is pretty hard to live up to this kind of hype. Can we be setting ourselves up for a letdown? Will this fight be a three round barn-burner or will it be a twelve round snoozer if both fighters become leary of the other’s power? It seems to be a fight that should be exciting for the fans but how many times have does a public suffer disappointment in a sport before they become skeptical of even the best match-ups? Pacquiao has been bringing his A game lately and it is up to Cotto to provide what the last three boxers have not provided for Pacquiao, some competition.
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