By Chris Williams: It’s a fight that former middleweight champion Bernard Hopkins (48-5-1, 32 KOs) would have been at a clear disadvantage even in the prime of his boxing career, but now at 43 years-old, it’s a fight that he has almost zero chance of winning even under the best case scenario. The age, the numerous fights, the lack of work rate and his entire style – that of a counter puncher – all seem to work against Hopkins in winning this fight. Although he’ll never admit it, even if he does lose and lose badly, he just doesn’t have the skills to beat a young power puncher like Pavlik.

Perhaps for this reason, the fight hasn’t caught on with the boxing public as much as some people thought it would. It didn’t help any that Hopkins fought a dull fight against Joe Calzaghe in April, clinching often, and going down for shots that landed low and taking a long time to recover from the punches. From outward appearances, it seemed that the older Hopkins was trying to slow the fight down to a crawl so that he could get as much rest as he could for his weary body. This turned what many people had hoped would be an exciting fight into absolutely painful fight to watch, in which one had the urge to turn the channel for something more interesting to watch.

The fact that it cost a bundle to watch the fight, made it even worse because. Hopkins, who earlier in his career was active fighter, has slowed down in the past several years, his once good punch output slowing to a crawl. In fights against Winky Wright, Antonio Tarver and Jermain Taylor, Hopkins has slowed each fight down with his tendency to clinch often. With that said, it’s worked for him though, allowing him to defeat Wright and Tarver, although in boring fashion.

However, I think his luck has run out with him in the case of his October fight with Pavlik. This is a fight where Hopkins will be going up against power, whether at close range or at a distance, and without a strong punch output or massive speed like Taylor working for him, Hopkins is going to be forced to take a lot of shots while he attempts to grapple with Pavlik on the inside.

I don’t suspect for a moment that Hopkins will even attempt to trade shots with Pavlik, because he probably understands his own limitations and knows that he doesn’t have the energy to fight back and forth in this manner without tiring out and getting hit with something big. This is why we should see a repeat of Hopkins’ fight with Calzaghe, only that instead of Hopkins landed the cleaner shots, it will be Pavlik who, when not being held and wrestled with, will be landing a well.

Hopkins has struggled in four out of his last five fights, only fighting well against the tall, thin Tarver in winning a 12-round unanimous decision in June 2006. The fights against Calzaghe, Wright, and Taylor have all been close, with Hopkins laboring hard and not looking like the same fighter he was in the past. At his age, it’s expected to see him slip as a fighter, as most fighters his age would have long retired.

But his age is going to be the limiting factor again in his fight coming up with Pavlik, and no matter how good he was 2000 yesterday’s ago, those days are gone and he can’t bring them back. It’s too bad, but I just see it as a case of Pavlik being too strong, and Hopkins being not the same fighter he was in the past years. It’s unfortunate that off all fighters that Pavlik could have chosen, he had to settle for Hopkins, because I don’t see this as being an interesting fight to watch. Hopkins will, like he has in recent fights, slow the fight down dramatically with his expert-like clinching and well make Pavlik earn a decision the hard way – by wrestling on the inside.