By Michael Liberman: As the fight nears closer, not much if any fans or experts alike are giving middleweight challenger Gary Lockett (30-1, 21 KOs) much of a chance at defeating WBC/WBO middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik (33-0, 29 KOs), whom they see as winning the fight by a likely early knockout scenario. On the face of it, it hardly seems to be fair to Lockett, who hasn’t lost a bout in six years. Though he’s faced the much softer competition, Lockett’s power is very real judging by the impressive knockouts I’ve seen him put together in the past few years. He perhaps may not punch quite as hard as Pavlik, then again who does? But he still punches as hard if not harder than any of Pavlik’s other opponents he faced thus far in his short career.
For that reason, I think Pavlik is in for a big surprise on June 7th, when he finds himself not prepared for the incoming fire that Lockett’s going to be bringing in at him. Pavlik, like most of his bouts, won’t show any respect for Lockett and will no doubt go right after him from the very start, thinking that he can simply walk right over him like all of his other opponents. But, what’s different here is that Lockett not only punches like a mule, he also is incredibly smart, and knows when to slug and when to stay at a distance. He’s not easy to corner like say a Edison Miranda type opponent, which means that Pavlik won’t have a stationary target in front of him like he’s used to when fighting.
Perhaps the best indication, I think, that Pavlik isn’t ready for Lockett is the fact that Pavlik has been working on trying to land a fight with Joe Calzaghe further down the road, as if beating Lockett was already a done deal, something that could already be counted on happening. That’s got to be a major anger point for Lockett, who will likely use this as motivation for his bout with Pavlik. This fight will mean even more to Lockett after an insult like this, as he goes out to prove to himself that he is just as good as Pavlik. I can only imagine that for his part, Pavlik can’t be training anywhere near as hard as Lockett is which is something that will haunt him when the fight gets to the later rounds.
I think Pavlik is going to wear down, and possibly walk into a big shot from Lockett, who will continue throwing hard even late in the fight. With no other plans besides his idea of slugging, Pavlik won’t know what to do when his original idea of scoring a quick knockout doesn’t work for him. This is when Lockett will pounce on him like a Tiger, and will land a flurry of big shots and drop him. I can see Pavlik, with all his pride, getting up but then quickly planted back down to the canvas. Eventually after several knockdowns, I see the fight being stopped with Lockett being awarded the victory by knockout. It will be a bitter defeat for Pavlik, as he finally comes to understand that he miscalculated how good Lockett is, how much he underestimated the hard-punching fighter from Wales. By then, it will be too late, as Pavlik will have been defeated, and along with it his dreams of a fight with Calzaghe. The unkindest cut of all, however, is that it will be Lockett who goes up against Calzaghe, also from Wales, in a huge fight that will have the entire UK buzzing with excitement.
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