By Dan Ambrose: WBO junior middleweight champion Liam Smith (23-0-1, 13 KOs) realizes that he’s the underdog in his fight against challenger Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (47-1-1, 33 KOs) in less than two weeks ago on September 17, but he doesn’t care. Smith says he’s going to there to beat Canelo and spoil things for him in their fight on the Mexican Independence Day holiday weekend.
Smith, 27, says he’s not just coming for the payday fight like a lot of boxing fans mistakenly think of him. He has his WBO title to lose, and he doesn’t plan on letting Canelo take that from him. Smith says he wants to beat Canelo and then look to get the acclaim from that victory.
Having Smith spoil all the plans that Golden Boy Promotions has for Canelo will be a real downer for the company. Canelo has become Golden Boy’s No.1 money maker fighter. He’s their golden goose.
If the goose gets plucked by Liam Smith on September 17, it’s quite possible that many of the Canelo fans will drift away and be siphoned off by Gennady “GGG” Golovkin. The Kazakhstan fighter has what he calls the “Mexican style” of fighting that he uses to score knockouts – and win fans. Golovkin has knocked out 22 consecutive opponents. He could very well snatch up many of Canelo’s loyal fans as they jump ship if/when he loses to Liam Smith on September 17. Smith could do a number on Canelo’s career by beating him.
I don’t know if Golden Boy could resurrect Canelo’s career if he loses to Smith. It would be one of those Humpty-Dumpty type situations where Golden Boy would need to try and assemble the eggshell pieces of Canelo’s shattered career after a loss to Smith. I think the first priority for Golden Boy would be to make sure they DON’T fight Smith a second time, because if he can bat Canelo once, then he very well could beat him a second time, and then finish off his career for good as a major player.
Canelo vs. Smith will be televised on HBO pay-per-view on September 17 at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The fight could wind up with an audience of over 40,000 Canelo cans. Golden Boy Promotions CEO Oscar De La Hoya believes the Canelo-Smith fight will bring in 60,000 fans. However, there are only a little 20,000 tickets sold for the fight right now.
Unless the pace of the ticket sales increase dramatically in the next two weeks, it doesn’t appear likely that De La Hoya’s vision of 60,000 fans will be a reality. You can make the same comment about De La Hoya’s vision of the Canelo vs. Smith fight bringing in more than 1.15 million buys on pay-per-view, which is what the 2010 fight between welterweight Manny Pacquiao and Antonio Margarito brought in. De La Hoya believes the Canelo-Smith fight will bring in more PPV buys than that fight for some reason.
“I feel like I’m ready. I’m excited going in,” said Liam Smith to Sky Sports News. “It doesn’t bother me. I’m happy to be the underdog, even though I’m the champion. I am the B-side of this fight. Canelo is the big name. The show is all about Canelo. It’s on Mexican Independence Day weekend. It’s at Dallas Cowboys Stadium. There’s talk of Canelo-Triple G next year, so this is all about Canelo. Obviously, I’m there to put a spanner in the works, and that’s what I’m going to do. People think I’m going in there for a payday. No, I’ve got something to lose. I’m the champion. I’ve got a title to lose. I’m going in there to make a name for myself and establish to the world of boxing,” said Smith.
It would be a real shocker if Smith beats Canelo to spoil his night and ruin his chances for a big fight against Golovkin.
If Canelo can’t Liam Smith, then it’s hard to know where he can go from there. Smith is a good 154lb fighter, but he’s not considered the best. Canelo probably can’t stay at 154 for more than a fight or two more without being pressured into fighting the better fighters in the weight class like the Charlo brothers, Erislandy Lara and Demetrius Andrade.
Canelo will need to move up to middleweight officially, and that will be hard to do with him coming off of a loss. I think Golovkin would still fight Canelo with him limping into the fight off the back of a loss to Smith, but it would be a bad for Canelo. I don’t think it would be a wise move, but what else can he do? Canelo can’t stay perched at his own specially designed weight class at 155lbs fighting guys that he drags up down to that weight. He’ll need to fight the best guys at 160 or 154 and take his chances. Canelo’s career could go downhill rapidly in that case.