By Dave Lahr: Trainer Freddie Roach is wary of his fighter Manny Pacquiao getting hit with head butts and uppercuts from challenger Joshua Clottey, and to prevent from Pacquiao getting hit with either, Roach says he’s going to have Pacquiao fight from the outside. In an article at TVNZ, Roach says “Sometimes he [Clottey] uses his head. If you fall into the pocket with him, his best punch is an uppercut and his second best punch is a head butt. So we’re not going to go in there.

We’re going to fight him at distance.” That sounds all well and good, but how is a short 5’6” fighter going to fight a taller fighter who is three inches taller and who has longer arms as well from the distance. That sounds like some kind bizarre strategy to me. The fact is Pacquiao will have to come in close if he wants to land his shots, because his arms are too short for him to fight on the outside like he’s some second coming of Paul Williams.

Besides that, Pacquiao never fights anyone from the outside. He always fights them in close. And Clottey doesn’t always use his head. In only one fight, his bout against Carlos Baldomir years ago did Clottey accidently bump heads with Baldomir a number of times. But if Roach believes that Pacquiao is going to be in danger if he gets too close to Clottey, then the better for Clottey.

Pacquiao won’t be able to land from the outside because his arms are too short and he’s finally fighting a real welterweight instead of a short one like Miguel Cotto and Ricky Hatton. This time, Pacquiao has to deal with a fighter who has the arm length, the strength and the frame of a legitimate welterweight. And it sounds like Roach is worried about it. He should be.

If Clottey beats Pacquiao, and beats him decisively, it’s egg on Roach’s face and it could slow down the gravy train. Pacquiao would still make a ton of money in a rematch with Clottey, but it could be the beginning of the end if Clottey puts a real whipping on Pacquiao and beats him especially bad like I think he might do.

Pacquiao is hoping that his hand speed with be the factor in him beating Clottey on Saturday night. “My quickness will be the key, my speed.” I don’t think so. You can’t always win with just hand speed. Clottey hits harder, is bigger than Pacquiao and will want it more than him. Pacquiao may have the quickness, but he won’t have the size or the same desire at Clottey to win the fight.

Clottey needs this win, because he’s not rich like Pacquiao and won’t be unless he can capture Pacquiao’s title with a sensational win. Speed will help Pacquiao up to a point, but if he’s not landing because his shots are being picked off by Clottey, then I can see Pacquiao getting worn down. Clottey will go after him with power shots and walk Pacquiao down and batter him.