By Alexander Fugate: First, I would like to apologize to everyone, as I was mistaken in an earlier article stating ticket sales for the May 1 mega-fight. It has since been brought to my attention that Stubhub.com allows fans to sell tickets to other fans. It appears (to me at least) to be a legal form of scalping online. Stubhub, from my current understanding doesn’t directly sell tickets to events, but simply allows people with tickets to events to sell them.
So, the numbers I previously stated are probably quite off, but the word is sales are going well and most would be surprised, to say the least, if this doesn’t sell out well ahead of fight night. Still, I made a mistake, and I offer my sincerest apologies.
However, the question out there is how well will Mayweather-Mosley actually do? Richard Schaefer of Golden Boy Promotions has said he expects 3 million PPV buys. This seems to be an absurdly high number. The record for most PPV buys for any boxing match ever is 2.44 million and that is the only fight to ever eclipse the 2 million mark. Not even Mike Tyson ever garnered over 2 million PPV buys. So, 3 million certainly seems like a stretch, but it isn’t impossible.
And it certainly isn’t the first time Schaefer has estimated huge numbers for a Mayweather fight that left many rolling their eyes. But his previous high estimates for a Mayweather fight have been accurate. As Dan Rafeal of ESPN.com reported on March 4, 2010, “He (Schaefer) predicted that Mayweather-De La Hoya would break the all time PPV record in 2007, and it did. Last year he predicted Mayweather-Juan Manuel Marquez would crack a million buys, which few believed. It did.
So when Schaefer predicted Wednesday that Mosley-Mayweather would break the Mayweather-De La Hoya record, I didn’t laugh this time. It could.” I agree with Mr. Rafael that the fight on May 1st could break the record for PPV buys, but being possible is a far cry from being a sure thing. More people have access to PPV fights now than ever before and both Mayweather and Pacquiao fights since they fought De La Hoya have done very well to say the least.
Some wonder if this fight can gain that much support with two African-American fighters facing each other. And while there is no doubt many fighters of different ethnic backgrounds have prospered with the help of their fellow citizens, Mayweather-Mosley will still generate much interest with casual boxing fans. Trinidad and Cotto both received a lot of support from fellow Puerto Ricans, Hatton from the UK, Pacquiao from Filipino’s, and numerous Mexican greats from their fellow countrymen. Still, Hatton’s numbers don’t include the UK PPV buys, and the Phillipines don’t have PPV’s to my understanding. When PPV buy numbers are released, the figure released only includes “domestic” buys, which I presume to mean only in the USA. If one takes into account UK buys for Hatton fights, he got over 2 million for his fight with Mayweather and a couple hundred thousand over one million for fighting Pacquiao. Undoubtedly there is a large portion of Mexicans and many Filipino’s in the US, and I’m not sure whether PPV tallies include Puerto Rico, since it is part of the USA, but regardless there is a meaningful Puerto Rican population inside the “states”, especially in New York.
Honestly, I don’t see the fact that both fighters are African-Americans having much to do with how well this fight will be received. Whenever two of the best pound for pound fighters in boxing are in the same weight class and fight each, its going to pick up a lot of support from all boxing fans, both hardcore fans and casual fans alike. I can’t believe that Mexicans are going to tune out of such a big fight; to suggest so seems racist to me. I believe Mexicans are no different than any other ethnic group, and that boxing is especially popular in Mexico. There might be some that only tune in to cheer on their fellow countrymen, but the majority of Mexicans that purchase PPV boxing events do so for the same reason as everyone else, because they are fans of the sweet science.
Especially considering the ever popular 24/7 series will have a four show lead-up to the May 1st showdown; and it will also be heavily marketed by Golden Boy Promotions as they see a lot of potential in this showdown. And considering the legions of loyal Pacquiao fans, and that so much has been made of the Mayeather-Pacquiao negotiations, I can only see that helping attract more viewers. Many will want to see how both fighters perform and try to gauge their chances at beating Pacquiao. If Pacquiao gets past Clottey this weekend- which I and most gamblers agree is a certainty (Pacquiao is currently a 7-1 favorite)- than a showdown with the winner of Mayweather-Mosley later this year would almost certainly shatter all records for money and PPV buys generated from a boxing match. I think the failed Mayweather-Pacquiao negotiations will also help boost sales for Pacquiao-Clottey this weekend.
So considering the marketing Mayweather-Mosley will receive and the hype surrounding a future fight with Pacquiao for the winner, and the fact that these are not only two of the top welterweights, but two of the best pound for pound fighters in the game today, I see May 1st doing exceedingly well. Even though Schaefer has been correct in past predictions, his current 3 million mark still seems out of reach to me.
An interesting side-note is that both Mayweather and Freddie Roach have stated in the past that Mosley isn’t a big enough draw. Roach insisted the money wasn’t there for a Pacquiao fight with Mosley last summer and Pacquiao instead faced Miguel Cotto. That fight generated a great 1.25 million PPV buys, but if May 1st, doubles that, and Mayweather wins, it seems Pacquiao will have lost a ton of leverage and power in negotiations for a fight with Mayweather in the future. It would only seem logical that Mayweather should get a bigger slice of the purse in a Pacquiao fight if he is able to double Pacquiao-Cotto buys against an opponent that is supposedly less of a draw than Cotto.
Trying to be realistic, I see May 1st, getting anywhere between 1.75 million and 2.55 million buys (there are some variables, e.g. if Pacquiao wins, the amount of commercials, to name a couple) and that Pacquiao-Clottey will get around one million, give or take 100,000. If Pacquiao gets over a million and Mayweather-Mosley only gets around 1.75 million, Mayweather will have gained some leverage albeit not a huge amount, but if May 1st, sets records, than Pacquiao will have to face the fact that Mayweather is the much bigger draw and take substantially less than 50% for a future bout with Mayweather.
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