By Sean McDaniel: Unbeaten heavyweight Chris Arreola (27-0, 24 KO’s) looks to be a long shot to beat WBC heavyweight champion Vitali Klitschko (37-2, 36 KO’s) next month on September 26th, at the Staples Center, in Los Angeles, California. Arreola, 6’4”, matches up more or less in the height department against the 6’7” Klitschko, but as far as the ability to move around the ring, block punches or box, Arreola is far less skilled than the 38-year-old Klitschko.

You can’t just say that Arreola can win if he does this or that, because there are really not that many options available for Arreola to win this fight. I think in the end, Arreola has only one real chance to win this fight and that’s by going after Vitali and trying to knock him out or wear him down to the point where he can be knocked out.

Arreola doesn’t have the boxing skills needed to win a decision and he can’t count on being able to knock Klitschko down enough times to win by decision. It’s just not likely to happen like that. Klitschko, if he ends up getting hurt, will be smart enough to clinch his way out of the round and then continue boxing in the following rounds.

Say what you will about Klitschko, he’s not stupid. He won’t try to slug it out with Arreola if he gets hurt. Arreola can’t afford to let Vitali stay on the outside and jab him to a pulp. Arreola has long arms and a decent jab, but his arms aren’t long enough to win a jabbing war with Klitschko.

Likewise, Arreola can’t sit back and bomb Klitschko from the outside, because his arms aren’t long enough to do that kind of fighting. Arreola’s best punch is his left hook clubbing right hand. In both cases, Arreola has to be fairly close before he can land those kinds of shots.

He doesn’t have the power to take a good heavyweight like Vitali out with one big shot, which means that Arreola needs for Klitschko to cooperate with him by having him let Arreola stay in close for an extended amount of time so that he can land enough of his big shots to take Klitschko out.

Do I see that happening? No. Vitali will move away from Arreola if he crowds him or likely grab him in a clinch to prevent Arreola from throwing a lot of big shots. Arreola might do well if he can get Klitschko to back up to the ropes or the corner where he can try to mug him with big shots.

Arreola was able to do just this against the big 6’4” 240 pound Travis Walker in November 2008. Arreola took Walker out in the 3rd round. Walker has since been stopped in the 1st round by little known Manuel Quezada, which kind of takes some of the shine away from Arreola’s previous win over Walker.

Klitschko, however, likely won’t stay against the ropes because he doesn’t fight that way and is smart enough to know that he’s much more effective when he’s fighting in the center of the ring rather than by lying on the ropes.