By Andrew Latimore: We have Kelly Pavlik a young, strong, raw champion, up against an old cagey, highly experienced Bernard Hopkins. Kelly Pavlik, a young, primed, heavy-hitting superstar who has legitimately beaten Jermain Taylor, twice, the guy who beat Hopkins twice. Hopkins doesn’t have the hand speed to catch him like Taylor did (he doesn’t have the punching power of Taylor either). If Pavlik is aggressive, Hopkins is just going to be a stationary target - he doesn’t have the energy to go full rounds anymore, and doesn’t have the power to keep Pavlik off him.

Will it end up with Pavlik walking him down from the beginning, missing shots early, but the pressure will eventually wear Hopkins out - by the middle rounds he won’t be punching back, and it will be round after round of Pavlik’s offense just accumulating punishment. He had to ‘take a break’ from Calzaghe’s pitter-pats. Pavlik’s punishing punches will beat him down. Whether we use the term “basic” or “one-dimensional” the point is that Pavlik offers no surprises: he’s conventional and pretty simplistic in his approach. He’ll simply come after Hopkins and try to walk him down and knock him.

I’ve never seen a middleweight hit as hard as Kelly hits, don’t let the pail skin and skinny frame fool you, every fighter he has faced underestimated his power and what did he do he, floored them all 30KO’s out of 34 fights, however as powerful and active as Pavlik is I just don’t see him getting the KO. (hope yes, think so, no). Hopkins might be cagey, but Pavlik is going to hit him often. People underestimate Pavlik’s range. He has long arms, and he gets full extension on his shots, they are hard to avoid, even though they are a little slow.

On the other hand, Pavlik has never been in with a Hopkins type and id like to see how he would handle the way he controls the ring, don’t be surprised if b-hop pulls tricks out of the book and wins this by spilt decision. Bernard has already fought at the higher weight classes and is still one of the craftiest fighters in the game. Bernard’s style can deal with such an animal. Hopkins would simply time him coming in with lead right hands, tie him up inside, and spoil the fight every which way he knows how.

You see Bernard couldn’t do this as effectively against Calzaghe, because Joe has this innovative, fluid, light on his feet, extremely fast style…but Pavlik is more flatfooted, forward moving and throwing conventional punches. Hopkins can handle that style even if he’s slipped somewhat in speed and stamina…his smarts alone should be enough to offset Pavlik’s predictable forward moving aggression.

Picture this, Pavlik coming in constantly behind the jab and looking for the long right hand. Hopkins timing him with the sneaky lead right.tieing him up and occasionally exploding, without warning with a couple combinations.before moving out and causing Pavlik to start his rhythm again.

A plausible scenario, but not very likely. Hopkins won’t have a reach or height advantage, which means he’ll need to be closer to Pavlik to get in those lead right hands. Pavlik has shown that anyone who stands on the outside with him gets KTFO. I’m not certain that once Hopkins tastes Pavlik’s power that he’ll quickly drop that plan, look to survive then bitch about losing another decision.

I think this fight follows a broadly similar pattern to the Calzaghe-Hopkins fight. Hopkins will look reasonably good early on, slipping shots, throwing good, crisp counters and generally picking Pavlik off as he tries to enforce his style and will on the older man.
He may even drop Kelly, whose chin is far from impenetrable and whose style and defense invites the kind of shots Hopkin’s will look (sparsely) to throw.

Eventually, by around five, Bernard will start to slow, throwing crisp headbutt-groin shot-grapple combinations instead of hard crisp counters. Kelly will be able to start to walk the old man down, landing jabs and sharp rights in patches, looking a bit sloppy but winning the rounds comfortably.

Like some have indicated Hops is old and cannot throw more than 10 punches per round. There is no way in hell he beats Pavlik with that type of activity.

Hopkins could well stink it out and make Pavlik look bad, maybe somehow even get the win, but I’m picking Kelly. Too strong, too rangy, too powerful, too busy. If Hopkins “really” tries to win, he’ll be stopped, but I cant see that happening.

Hopkins will lose a decision in which he humiliates himself with a usual boring performance could result in him no longer of being a PPV attraction.

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