By Chris Williams: Tim Bradley is giving Terence Crawford a 30-40% chance of beating Canelo Alvarez at 168 in a battle for the Mexican star’s four belts. Terence hasn’t said anything about wanting to move up to super middleweight to earn the fight against Canelo, so he’s going to have to depend on Alvarez’s generosity if he’s to get the fright.
(Photo credit: Ryan Hafey/Premier Boxing Champions)
The 30-40% chance that Bradley gives Crawford of beating Canelo is slightly higher than this writer. Chris Williams gives Crawford a 10% chance, and that’s only if Canelo is fighting while injured.
Bradley says Crawford (40-0, 31 KOs) is the better-skilled fighter and would set traps and exploit Canelo’s high guard that he uses when marching forward. However, what makes Bradley doubt Crawford’s chances is the size advantage that Canelo (60-2-2, 39 KOs) has going for him.
Tim doesn’t know how well the welterweight Crawford can handle the heavy shots from Canelo, as he’s only fought one big puncher in his career, and that was Errol Spence, and he was weight drained from dropping down from 190 lbs during camp.
We’ve seen Crawford hurt by lesser punchers than Canelo in his fights against Yuriorkis Gamboa and Egidijus Kavaliauskas. If those guys were able to hurt Crawford, he’d be heading for early disaster against Canelo.
Is Canelo too big for Crawford?
Crawford will need to be a salesman and perhaps give Canelo a phone call to try and persuade him to give him a shot because, right now, he’s not interested.
Canelo obviously doesn’t want to look like a fighter that is selecting his opposition from the lower weight classes because that’s what’s would be doing by facing his second straight opponent from divisions below him.
“That’s tough. We know Canelo can be outboxed, but the size difference is what’s scary about that fight,” said Tim Bradley to Fighthype about Terence Crawford moving up to 168 to face Canelo Alvarez.
We know that Canelo can be outboxed by a 6’0″ light heavyweight Dmitry Bivol, but it might be a different story for the 5’8″ Crawford, who will be giving away 20+ lbs and has never tasted the kind of power that he’ll be hit with all night.
Further, Crawford is old at 36, and that’s not the ideal age for a fighter to move up three divisions to take on Canelo.
“If Crawford can’t hurt him, if Crawford can’t stop him from coming forward, and Crawford’s great at exposing high guards,” said Bradley. “He knows how to come underneath and come around. He knows how to set traps for his opponents, and I think he’ll be able to lay a lot of traps for Canelo.”
Is Crawford just looking for a paycheck?
“I think he’ll give him a lot more issues and problems than [Jermell] Charlo, no doubt about it, because of the mentality, and he would come to win,” said Bradley. “I just wonder whether he can take Canelo’s punch, and can he stay away from Canelo’s punch, and can he absorb the punishment that he’s going to get and have to go through,” said Bradley.
Crawford can set traps and land shots, but when he gets hit back by Canelo, he’s likely to retreat because if he stays in the pocket, he’s going to be chopped apart.
Terence will get on his bike and start running around the ring like in his fight with Viktor Postol, causing fans to boo as they did in that bout. That’s just what Canelo needs. Another safety-first smaller guy who has never fought at 168, coming for a paycheck. The fans were booing Crawford against Postol, because he wouldn’t stand his ground.
“Canelo will close a distance on him, and Canelo will hit him and will pound on him,” said Bradley. “Now, Crawford, I think, has the skills but, again, the size. That size. The weight classes are there for a reason.
“Crawford definitely would dare to be great. I think he has the skill set to beat a Canelo. If they were the same size, pound-for-pound, Crawford’s skill set is better than Canelo’s, in my opinion.”
If Crawford wants to dare to be great by going up to 168 for a paycheck against Canelo, he needs to first do some daring against this murderer’s row:
- David Benavidez
- DmitryBivol
- David Morrell Jr.
- Demetrius Andrade
- Caleb Plant
If Crawford isn’t willing to fight those guys to potentially pick up a $20 million+ payday against Canelo, then he obviously doesn’t want it badly enough.
In that case, he was never truly interested in daring to be great, but rather just another guy looking today that he doesn’t deserve.
Canelo could have avoided the disaster from last weekend with an eyesore-level mismatch if he’d insisted that Jermell prove himself against Morrell Jr., Benavidez, Bivol, Andrade, or Plant. If Jermell refused to earn the fight, Canelo should have washed his hands with him and moved on.
It is bad for boxing for fighters like Canelo to cherry pick smaller fighters with no experience in the 168-lb weight class and use them as his opponent.
If Canelo no longer has the confidence to fight the best guys in his division, he needs to humble himself and quit acting like he’s the King s***. Obviously, Canelo lacks the confidence to take on the best at 168 or try and avenge his loss to Bivol.
“Now, they’re not the same size, and that’s where the difficulty comes,” said Bradley. “I think that’s daring to be great for Crawford because his skill set outmatches Canelo’s. It would be a 30% chance,40% chance because, again, that weight,” said Bradley, rating Crawford’s chances of beating Canelo.
“I believe in my man Crawford. I think he’s different. I’ve never seen anything like him in the sport as long as I lived. I could say that, but that’s tough, it’s tough.
“Crawford’s a winner, Crawford won’t come and lay down, and Crawford will definitely go out on the shield, no doubt about it, but Canelo got other guys he can fry, that he needs to fry before Crawford gets a shot,” said Bradley.
